A recent story by Tim Craig in The Washington Post reported that former Congressman and champion fundraiser Tony Coelho has sent an email to Democrats asking them to donate to Terry McAuliife’s run for Governor. In the 1980’s, Coelho’s fundraising prowess put the party on an even footing with Republicans by extracting dollars from business interests that had almost uniformly supported the GOP.
Coelho’s email is, in one way, simply a friend helping a friend. But it is also indicative of a change that has been taking place for more than a decade- the nationalization of Virginia politics. Many of us can remember a time when candidates identified themselves as a “Virginia Democrat” as a way of drawing a contrasting with more liberal “National Democrats.” Not any more. Virginia elected officials have become major players in both national parties, serving as head of the national committee, chair of congessional election committees, and official respondents to the President’s State of the Union address.
Virginia has kept its gubernatorial election off the federal cycle, in part, to insulate the state from the impact that association with national candidates and parties might have. But the irony of the 2009 elections is that the exact opposite will occur. Because we are one of only two states holding a gubernatorial election, national attention will be focused on Virginia.
Political money crosses state borders easily and, in 2009, it really won’t have anyplace else to go. Add the fact that Virginia’s campaign finance rules have no limit on contributions, who knows what we are likely to see by November.
The numbers being bounced around about a possible McAuliffe candidacy are astounding. Some rumors suggest that he’ll raise as much as $60-$70 million-one tenth of what Obama obtained to run for President of the entire United States. Whew!
Others claim that he’ll reserve $10-$20 million to support General Assembly candidates. I’ve even heard of a local sheriff who wonders whether there might be trickle-down down money for his race. Heck, if $70 million will be pouring into the state, why not?
Virginia’s connection with the national scene in 2009 will extend beyond the influence of out-of-state dollars. Republicans will pin their hopes on Bob McDonnell as a candidate that could set the stage for a GOP comeback in 2010 by showing how a practical conservative message can still resonate with swing-state voters. Democrats will not want to see Barack Obama nicked in a state that epitomized the changing dynamic of American politics in 2008.
Tip O’Neill famously said that all politics is local. This will still hold true to some extent in 2009. Brian Moran Moran and Creigh Deeds are fighters and could defeat McAuliffe by contrasting their years of working in Virginia to his national resume. And the issues on which the November elections will turn are not primarily national.
But the days of insulating Virginia elections from national political currents are over. And despite whatever nostalgia people might have for the good ol days, this will make Virginia a very interesting place next year.
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