GOP legislative reactions to Governor Kaine’s proposals addressing the anticipated revenue shortfall deserve mixed reviews. Very little was reported about any evaluation of the specifics of the reductions, including layoffs and delayed raises for state employees. We are left for now to speculate about Republican opinions as to precisely where the axe falls, except that GOP legislators believe even deeper cuts must follow. What we do know is that in part they will fall on those who most need our help.
But predictably there was immediate rejection of two proposals: early release for some nonviolent offenders and a 30 cents tax increase on a pack of cigarettes. The unsurprising response to these two proposals represents for many the core problem with Republican legislative leadership: policy is made and positions taken through ideologically and/or politically driven cast-in-concrete stands, and not thoughtful and careful analyses that include alternatives to the initiatives criticized.
Bceause Republican beliefs include a hard-nosed approach to law enforcement (generally sound policy) any proposal that breaches this fortress earns immediate rejection. Never mind that the beneficiaries will be released only a short time before they would anyway and that serious offenders will remain locked away. Never mind that that the Commonwealth faces unprecedented challenges to its core spending obligations for education, Medicaid, mental health, transportation, etc. Criticism of the Governor as “soft on crime” fits the GOP mold, so the verbal cannons roar quickly. What to cut if this savings is not realized is not discussed.
The point here isn’t that the idea is a sound one and no criticism is deserved. Ultimately, it might be sound public policy to reject it. The point is that it is too early to reach conclusions without waiting to see what we we know by February about the size of the shortfall (many Republicans think it will be larger than Gov. Kaine projects) and evaluating the alternative ways to reduce the same amount of revenue from other programs. Simply put, thoughtful is the missing ingredient!
The same is true for the tobacco tax. Actually, it gets hit from both sides, some Democrats oppose it because they says it falls disproportionately on the poor, and the Republican legislative leadership opposes it because they claim it would result in job losses at Philip Morris during a recession. The Democrats’ response is not the subject of this piece, but is it intuitively obvious that a 30 cents a pack increase in one state will impact global sales so negatively that it will actually result in reduced employment at Philip Morris? Doubtful, but even if more more care were given to the analysis, one would need to consider the public health benefit of less smoking and the availability of the money not spent on cigarettes to spend elsewhere and the attendant benefits from this spending, including sales tax revenues and increased employment elsewhere.
Would this necessarily happen? Who knows? Where would the cuts fall to offset not having the additional revenue the tax would produce? Who knows because the opponents of the tax proposal aren’t saying? Again, the tax might be a bad idea. Alternatives might be better once they are ferreted out. But the GOP leadership gives the impression that ideology trumps reason. If it is a tax increase of any amount, at any time, for any reason, it must be immediately oposed. Maybe it should be opposed, but not immediately. Not without careful thought that includes alternative proposals to address the spending reductions that must be added to those proposed by the Governor for the budget to be balanced.
A more thoughtful GOP reaction (also less partisan which would resonate favorably with voters) might sound something like this. “The Governor made some difficult decisions and he–and we— might have to make more. We intend to study them carefully, including his proposed tax increase on tobacco and early release of convicted felons. We are skeptical of a tax increase affecting a major Virginia employer, and we do not send want to send the wrong message to criminals, whatever their offense. But these are tough times and at this point everything must be on the table and all alternatives carefully considered to achieve the best results for Virginia. Republicans are committed to work with the Governor toward that goal.
Virginia Republicans need to recapture the high ground of the policy debate. We need to be less partisan and more thoughtful: Less bound to absolutes and more willing to consider thoroughly ideas that might deviate from the dogma that is perceived to replace thought. Indeed after penetrating consideration of the alternatives and the advancing of their ideas of how to deal with the budget crisis that confronts us, Republican legislators might conclude that both proposals should be rejected as inferior to other choices. Or remembering that the task is to govern, compromise might be the path to follow. But then they wil be preceived as leaders who carefully consider the options before deciding what path to follow. Ths is what leaders do and what the GOP must do, if we are to lead Virginia again.
Wyatt Durrette is a Director at DurretteBradshaw, PLC and co-founder of the XDL Group. He served three terms in the House of Delegates and was the Republican candidate for Governor in 1985.
Durrette makes an excellent point, one Virginia Republicans–and Democrats–would do well to heed: a reflexive, knee-jerk “NO!” does not for contemplative policy make. Neither does a reflexive, knee-jerk “YES!”
My sense is that the political capital Virginia voters grant to either party now is down to pocket change. Same with their reservoirs of patience–they are about empty.
I’d say that many of those we elect who don’t take off their party blinders, check their partisan battle flags at the door, and find a way to work together are going to have contemplative time on their hands come the next election cycle–BKD