Virginia Tomorrow

Terry McAuliffe is in.

The former Chair of the Democratic National Committee, the chief fundraiser for Hillary Clinton, and an extraordinarily savvy player at the highest levels of American national politics, McAuliffe  is officially seeking the Democratic nomination for the Governor of Virginia.

It promises to be a remarkable election year. McAuliffe has to first compete for the Democratic nomination with two seasoned legislators,  Creigh Deeds and Brian Moran, who are both highly competent, determined campaigners.

This is going to be a hard fought contest and the Democrats’ first seriously competitive battle for a gubernatorial nomination since 1985 when Attorney General Gerald Baliles defeated Lieutenant Governor Dick Davis.

And the winner will take on Attorney General Bob McDonnell in November. Republicans nationwide believe that a McDonnell victory in Virginia can be a catalyst for the revival of the party in the 2010 congressional elections.

 The electoral history of parachute candidates in Virginia- individuals whose reputation is primarily national prior to entering a statewide race-  is mixed. 

In 1994, Ollie North obtained the Republican nomination to run against Chuck Robb, the  Democratic incumbent. Reeling from a sex scandal and a grand jury investigation of an illegally obtained tape recording of a Doug Wilder conversation that had been held by the staff in his office, Robb was labeled the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent in the nation.

North was one of the most charismatic candidates ever to run in the Commonwealth (watch the documentary movie The Perfect Candidate if you never have) and raised what was, at that time, a record amount of money for a Virginia Senate race. But North’s high negatives,  Senator John Warner’s support for Marshall Coleman’s independent candidacy, and Doug Wilder’s decision to forego an independent challenge all combined to salvage the seat for Robb.

The results were different in 2006 when Jim Webb, a prominent author and former Secretary of the Navy took on George Allen. Webb’s ability to capitalize on the public’s discontent with President Bush combined with Allen’s now infamous “macaca moment” enabled him to eke out a victory that derailed Allen’s presidential bid and gave the Democrats control of the Senate nationally.

Like North and Webb, McAuliffe comes to the race with a resume that has far more heft on the federal side. What makes the McAuliffe effort unique, however, is that North and Webb were running for Senator, not Governor.  

A Senator represent the best interests of the state, but the day-to-day requirements of the job are to make judgments about national issues, not  to run the Commonwealth of Virginia. The national resumes of North and Webb provided appropriate credentialing for a senatorial job description.

What about McAuliffe and the Governorship?

Since I came to Virginia in 1978, every Virginia Governor has either served in statewide office and/or the General Assembly prior to the time that they were elected Governor- with the exception of Mark Warner in 2001.

Warner had not served in elected office, but his Virginia-based credentials were solid. He had unsuccessfully run for Senate against John Warner in 1996. He had been state party chair for the Democrats. And he was widely known throughout Virginia for his economic development efforts in local communities, including some of the more distressed regions of the state.

McAuliffe clearly has a larger challenge than Warner.

But I do not think that it is an insurmountable one.

He will have to convince Virginians that he has compelling ideas for moving the state forward and a capacity to actually implement a vision. His fund raising talents should help him here, but he has to be careful not to be viewed simply as a political ATM machine at a moment when the moral authority of Big Money has been diminished.

At the same time, it does not appear to me that the public is in a mo0d to disqualify excellent candidates simply because an experience category isn’t checked on the resume.  The manner in which Barack Obama defeated McAuliffe’s own candidate, Hillary Clinton, is proof enough.

McAuliffe’s entry into the race provides Virginia with the most exciting Democratic nomination battle in a generation. Get ready!