2009 will be the first truly competitive contest for a Democratic gubernatorial nomination since 1985 when Attorney General Gerald Baliles defeated Lieutenant Governor Dick Davis for the party’s nod.
It has been such a long time since the Democrats actually had a competitive nomination battle that no one knows exactly what to expect or precisely how to handicap the race this year.
Even going back to 1985 does not provide much assistance. The contest was not a primary. Moreover, the decision by then State Senator L. Douglas Wilder to seek the Democratic nomination for Lieutentant Governor received as much attention as the race for the gubernatorial bid.
Primaries typically assume a definable form as candidates position themselves within the landscape of the party’s constituent groups and core issues and against the backdrop of the broader public mood and atmosphere. And insiders begin to assess the strengths and weaknesses of the candidates, reaching conclusions that become part of what passes for the conventional wisdom.
I am wondering whether we have begun to see the shape of the Democratic primary for Governor take form over the last few weeks.
Let’s start with the McAuliffe campaign.
There is no doubt that McAuliffe has made a positive impression with his tour around the state. He has brought a genuine zest to the campaign. He is focused on big issues such as jobs and economic development that seem to be gaining even more salience in 2009 than in 2008 as national and state financial conditions worsen.
McAuliffe is also focused on the Democrats’ anxiety over Bob McDonnell. More and more Democrats believe that McDonnell will be a formidable opponent in November and McAuliffe is trying to convince fellow Democrats that he has the best capacity for defeating him.
McAuliffe clearly possesses excellent retail politics skills. His willingness to make personal visits, individual phone calls and talk to small groups everywhere are just the right touches for a candidate that has to acquire a lot of friends very quickly. And he raised more money in six weeks that the either of his two opponents did in six months.
The people who have met him appear to genuinely like him. Yet they all seem to have one question. Can someone who has spent little time involved in the day to day affairs of Virginia government win the governor’s race? And the insiders that I’ve spoken to do not agree on the answer. I’ve heard everything from “he’ll come in third” to “he’ll have the nomination wrapped up by the end of March.”
Brian Moran spent the week outflanking McAuliffe to the left on the environment, especially on the issue of drilling off the Virginia coast for oil and natural gas. While McAuliffe and Governor Kaine say that they support “exploration” for natural gas and not necessarily drilling, Moran has adopted a “Just Say No” stance.
Moran contends that the entire issue is misguided and deflects attention from the task of transforming the energy economy into one more dependent on renewables. His staff has told me that they do not believe that McAuliffe’s distinction between supporting “exploration” without approving “drilling” is tenable according to the rules and laws that regulate the process.
What we’re seeing, I think, is the outlines of Moran’s broader strategy. Moran will try to defeat McAuliffe and Deeds by outflanking them with key Democratic constituent groups and by utilizing a wide range of endorsements by local officials to demonstrate his connection to the grassroots, striving to contrast himself with McAuliffe as the man parchuting in from on high.
The conventional wisdom anong the reporters to whom I have spoken in that the Moran campaign appered to have been thrown off stride by McAuliffe’s entry into the race. This week the campaign stopped lamenting its bad luck and started developing a strategy.
The Deeds campaign, at least so far, is taking what some people would see as the most conventional approach to the campaign. Creigh argues that he is the only candidate with the experience of actually running statewide race. He is attempting to solidy his regional base in rural areas of the state, relying on both his personal connection with rural voters and the endorsement of Congressman Rick Boucher, the most influential Democrat in southwest Virginia. And he has obtained the endorsement of a number of his fellow Senators in other parts of the state, notably Dick Saslaw in NOVA and Henry Marsh in the Richmond metropolitan area.
By remaining in the the Senate and not following Moran’s lead in resigning, the Assembly prohibition against in-session fundraising will prevent Deeds from obtaining any money at all during the next few months. This is a significant disadvantage. But insiders remind me that Deeds is well liked by most fellow Democrats, that he has worked hard for the party, that he has a geographical base and, that in a three way race, as one person told me yesterday, “anything can happen.”
The Democratic nomination battle is beginning to assume a definable shape. But it will take place in the midst of an economic climate that may produce more pain and angst that we have seen in Virginia in a generation.
“Anything Can Happen.”
It may summarize what a lot of Virginians are thinking about what’s next for themselves.
It may also be the smartest thing that we can say right now about the gubernatorial race.
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