Virginia Tomorrow

1. Money, Money, Money…

That’s what the political insiders were talking about this week. Plenty of buzz about the $2 million Bob McDonnell has on hand. Terry McAuliffe raised more in six weeks than either of his Democratic opponents did in six months.  And how about Steve Shannon?  He is sitting on more than $700,000 in his bid to obtain the Democratic nomination for Attorney General. If you don’t know him now, you’ll certainly be hearing from him.

I always tell my friends not to get overly excited about these early totals. We spend a lot of time talking about money, because there is not that much else going on 10 months before the election. Money can be a huge problem if you don’t have any. But early dollars do not predict the outcome. In 1993, George Allen overcame an enormous early financial disadvantage to win in a landslide. In 2006, his own early lead was squandered in the race he lost to Jim Webb. Go figure.

2. Drill Now or Drill Never?

If Brian Moran’s the Democratic nominee, that’s the debate he will be having with Bob McDonnell. Moran made a big pitch for the green vote in the Democratic primary this week by taking a Drill Never pledge on the question of oil and gas exploration off the Virginia coast. Moran has deliberately separated himself from the other Democratic contenders. Deeds supports drilling if certain environmental and financial conditions are met. McAuliffe suports “exploration” for natural gas only, but says drilling is premature.

Moran’s Drill Never stance may have appeal with certain Democratic constituent groups. It could be a tougher position to defend if everyone is paying $4 a gallon again in November.

3. The “Democratic Wing” of the Democratic Party

Moran’s environmental rollout seems to me to be part of a larger strategy for the Democratic nomination battle. He plans to define himself as the most progressive candidate in the Democratic primary and appeal to the party’s core constituent groups on this basis. In Howard Dean’s pithy formulation, he is going to rely on the “Democratic wing of the Democratic party.”

Saturday evening Not Larry Sabato is reporting that Moran may be hiring Joe Trippi, Howard Dean’s new politics guru, to be his chief media person.  Discredited by the eccentricity of his own behavior in 2004, Dean is thought in many Democratic circles today to have been the first candidate to have understood the power of the internet and the significance of the progressive Democratic network in primary contests.

4. After All I’ve Done For You…

Senate Majority Leader Dick Saslaw, an ally of the payday lenders during the bitter legislative battles over the practice,  contended that the industry had “severely damaged” its credibility by offering a new high fee loan instrument that Assembly members believe is simply an effort to work around the rules they instituted last year.  Given rising anxiety about declining economic conditions,  payday lenders are likely to find legislators a very tough audience this year.

5. And That’s a 16 Vote Margin for a Democrat in Alexandria?

Results in the race to replace Brian Moran in the House of Delegate give Democrat Charniele Herring a sixteen vote margin over Republican challenger Joe Murray who promptly initiated a call for an official recount. 16 votes in Alexandria? In a district that went 72% for Obama? Does this mean anything? The Democrats insist that it does not. It was a low turnout election, they say, and in November they maintain that  the Democratic candidate will win by a comfortable margin. They might be right, but…16 votes in Alexandria?

Attention now turns to the special election for Chair of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors to replace now-Congressman Gerry Connolly between Democrat Sharon Bulova and Republican Pat Herrity. 

6. Who’s Got the Money?

It seems that the sales taxes from a number of businesses have been going to the wrong  jurisdiction.  The Washington Post reported that Fairfax County found $4.1 million in sales taxes diverted to other cities and counties. A host of  localities are now searching for missing money, hoping that they’ll be a net gainer after the mistakes are cleared up.

7. Blackberry Buddies

Politico reports that Virginia’s Eric Cantor, House Minority Whip, and his former colleague Rahm Emanuel are keeping in touch by cellphone and blackberry as Obama makes his pitch for bipartisan support. As Cantor moves into the national spotlight as a GOP spokesperson on fiscal and economic issues, it’ll be fascinating to see how the friendship develops.  I’m sure that historians will want to know what the rules are for saving those emails.