Virginia Tomorrow

The announcement that Joe Trippi will be joining the Moran Campaign as Media Director confirms the rumor that I first saw reported on Not Larry Sabato last week.

More importantly, it provides further evidence of the kind of campaign that Moran will be running. We noted last week that Moran’s effort to out-green Deeds and McAuliffe on environmental  issues pointed to a primary contest in which Moran would position himself as a grassroots candidate who would appeal, in Howard Dean’s expressive phrase, to the “Democratic wing of the Democratic Party.”

In Trippi, Moran has hired an individual who was a principal architect of the campaign that Dean introduced to American life (and many believe that the Obama team perfected).  Trippi is a smart and articulate practitioner of the new politics that appeals heavily to grassroots networks and emphasizes the importance of utilizing new media-the bloggers, the social networking community and internet fundraising- in organizing successful Democratic campaigns.

Trippi’s own announcement of his decision to join the Moran campaign on Daily Kos this morning obviously attacks Terry McAuliffe without mentioning him by name as someone who represents the old-style “status quo” politics and who has not “worked in the trenches” of Virginia as Moran has done for decades.  McAuliffe has said that he will not attack Moran and it will be interesting to see how his resolve holds up against these broadsides.

The Democrats’ first serious contest for a gubernatorial nomination in 24 years inVirginia is going to be a barnburner.

McAuliffe is positioning himself as the candidate of big ideas, the individual who can help revitalize a flagging economy. He also demonstrated in his first statwewide tour excellent retail politics skills and the media savvy that he has already exhibited on the national stage. The campaign includes a first-rate team of political professionals with considerable experience winning in Virginia.

The Moran campaign seems to have recovered from the shock of McAuliffe’s entry.  He has put forward in the last week a well thought out approach to obtaining the nomination and has hired first rate people to execute it. He also begins with a fairly wide network of support from local elected officials in the state.

Criegh Deeds has obtained the endorsement of Congressman Rick Boucher and a host of his fellow Senators, including a number in the major metropolitan areas of the state. And I imagine that he is hoping to be the beneficiary if Moran and McAuliffe train their sights on each other. McAuliffe’s entry into the race has increased the importance of Deeds’ rural base.

Let me end with one fact about the Democratic primary.  African-American voters are likely to make up from  30%-35% of the electorate.  They will be the single largest group that will participate in the  primary.  If any of the three candidates begins to substantially outpace the others with African-American voters, that is when we’ll see a real favorite emerge.