The Virginia Public Access Project has now added the downticket races to its posting of the 2008 fundraising reports of the announced candidates for statewide office. For all students of “Donorology,” here’s my attempt to make some sense out of what we’re seeing.
Lieutenant Governor’s Race:
Incumbent Lieutenant Governor Bll Bolling continues to raise money in a consistent manner for his re-election bid and now has $716,000 in cash on hand. Bolling’s challenger for the GOP nod, Patrick Muldoon, aparently has only a token fund raising effort taking place and has less than $300 cash on hand according to VPAP. This is excellent news for Bolling as he should be likely to squirrel most of his money away for November.
On the Democratic side, former Secretary of Finance Jody Wagner has $284,000 cash on hand and Jon Bowerbank has $181,000. Two other candidates, Rich Savage and Pat Edmonson, appear to have only token fund raising occurring.
There are curious features to the fundraising figures of both Wagner and Bowerbank . In Wagner’s case, about 60% of the $370,000 that she raised since the announcement of her campaign came from six zip codes in Virginia Beach and Norfolk. It is expected, to some extent, that a first-time candidate for statewide office will rely primarily on home town contacts for initial funding, but Wagner will certainly need to extend the reach of her financial support much further into NOVA.
Bowerbank’s effort is largely self funded. He has provided the majority of his campaign’s cash according to the VPAP reports. He has also received $72,000 in individial contributions that were funneled through ACTBLUE, an online clearinghouse for Democratic candidates and causes.
The bottom line is that Bolling has only token competition at the moment while the Democrats have a contested nomination that will require each candidate to spend a good portion of the cash currently on hand. Given that neither Democratic candidates is well known statewide, this actually could be beneficial- but only if the eventual winner is able to replenish the piggy bank after the nomination struggle.
By the time the Democrats pick their candidate, Bolling is likely to be sitting on more than a milion dollars. He’s not uncomfortable with the situation.
Attorney General Contest
The party landscape, at least at the moment, is the reverse of the Lieutenant Governor’s race.
Steve Shannon, the only announced Democratic candidate for the AG slot, has more than $746,000 cash on hand. Yes, that is $746,000. This is more than the two Democratic candidates for Lieutenant Governor combined. In fact, Shannon’s cash on hand is near the average of what the three Democratic gubernatorial candidates reported last week.
Senator John Edwards is said to be thinking about entering the Democratic contest. But Shannon’s stash has to be a major disincentive.
The GOP has a three way race going on between Senator Ken Cuccinelli, John Brownlee, and Dave Foster that will be decided in a nominating convention.
Cuccinelli has $220,000 on hand. While this does not begin to approach the dollars that Shannon has accumulated, he has raised more money that Brownlee and Foster. This is not always the case for social conservatives in nominating battles, so Cuccinelli must feel good about his relative position. He brings a definable base to the contest and it does not appear that he will be at a financial disadvantage, even with his inability to raise money during the session.
John Brownlee has $116,000 in cash on hand. A lot of Republicans who have met him have been impressed and believe that he would be an excellent candidate. With his military background and service as U.S. attorney, he has the kind of pedigree that should play very well in an Attorney General contest. It appears that he will, however, have to be more successful in raising money from traditional Republican sources to be fully competitive.
Dave Foster lags behind Cuccinelli and Brownlee in fundraising. He is a highly respected attorney in the northern Virginia, but has not yet demonstrated the capacity to tap NOVA GOP dollars in a big way.
The conventional wisdom in Republican circles is that Cuccinelli enters the year as a favorite for the nomination. Most insiders believe that it would be difficult for either Brownlee or Foster to defeat him on the first ballot, but that their hopes lay in combining forces to prevent Cuccinelli from obtaining a first ballot victory himself. If that occurred, the chances of Brownlee or Foster rise considerably.
At this moment, the fundraising reports seem to confirm the conventional wisdom that Cuccinelli enters the year in good shape.
One Final Note
David Rensin of Leesburg has emerged as an important funder of conservative candidates in Virginia. In the last two years, he has contributed more $1.5 million to GOP office-seekers and PACS. At any level below that of Governor, it is possible for a single donor to have a significant impact on a candidate’s fund raising success. Rensin is truly a major player. Check it out.
Good article. You miss two things First, on Cuccinelli’s fundraising he has emptied his Senate reelection fund, and he also got roughly half of his contributions ($80,000) from just one person. Still, we’ve got to give credit where credit is due. Second, Brownlee is running a very lean and mean campaign organization. This is good because he is not relying on managers and handlers to get the message out–he is personally on the road seven days a week, speaking everywhere and to anyone. His fundraising will perk up, but already he has enough to make it through the primary.
Here is Brownlee’s challenge in fundraising–Brownlee will win the nomination, but as a newbie he hasn’t realized which side his bread is buttered on, fundraising wise. What do I mean? Well, was a zealous prosecutor of corporate misdeeds, and he always refused to let fat cats pay thier way out of criminal charges. He has also repeatedly spoken up in favor of consumer protection. These things have earned him very few buddies among the fat cats that Republicans traditionally rely on.
He WOULD have a natural constitutency in the trial lawyer bar, and that is a good bunch of people to have on your side if you are raising political funds. He hasn’t realized that yet, and so he has made no outreach to trial lawyers. When he does, he will be in good shape.