Scott Rasmussen’s poll of 500 likely voters on the Virginia gubernatorial race yesterday had Bob McDonnell in front of all three Democratic contenders. His lead ranged from three points over Brian Moran, to seven points over Terry McAuliffe to nine points over Creigh Deeds.
The head-to-head matchups were not, however, the most interesting feature of the poll. I was far more intrigued by the favorable/unfavorable numbers.
At the moment, McDonnell is viewed favorably by 50% of the voters and unfavorably by only 18%.
This contrasts significantly with all three Democratic candidates. Deeds is 30/29 favorable to unfavorable, Moran 32/33 and McAuliffe 34/39.
Here is the challenge.
The Democrats are embarking on a three way primary in which they’ll be fighting one another while Bob McDonnell watches from the sidelines. At the moment, McDonnell’s favorability/unfavorability ratio is almost 3 to 1 while no Democrat has a ratio that is higher than 1 to 1.
How do the Democrats run a primary campaign against one another in which they do not further exacerbate the problem that these favorability ratings already pose?
The speeches at the JJ dinner Saturday evening may provide the first glimpse of an answer. Given the significance that Obama’s JJ speech in Iowa had to his candidacy, the expectations among Democrats are running very high.
I wouldn’t be surprised if all three contenders start pounding on McDonnell and start pitching that they’re the candidate with the best chance of defeating him in November.
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