Public Policy Polling released its latest survey yesterday of 647 “likely” Democratic primary voters and their preferences in the gubernatorial and lieutenant governor contests.
The poll showed Terry McAuliffe with a statistically insignificant lead over Brian Moran, 21% to 19%, with Creigh Deeds as the choice of 14% of the likely voters.
I tend to take state polls of likely primary voters with a full shaker of salt unless the poll provides one key piece of information: what percentage of party members say they are “likely” to vote in the primary. We need to know this information in order to understand whether the primary electorate the poll is tapping will bear any resemblance to the one that will turnout on a Tuesday in early June.
Primary turnouts in Virginia are traditionally relatively low and my suspicion is that far more people tell pollsters they are “likely” voters in primaries than will actually come to the polls. Moreover, the bias introduced by the expression of good civic intentions is more significant in a primary than in a general election. Unfortunately, the public release about this poll (and about a lot of other primary polls that are conducted by different organizations I might add) did not tell us what the model is predicting about Democratic party turnout or how it determined who would be a likely voter.
In a communication that I just received from Tom Jenson, PPP’s survey director, my comfort level with the results has increased considerably. He noted that “for the poll we called people who voted in the 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008 Democratic primaries; that is, folks who have a record of participating in Democratic primaries.” Among the paths a pollster could take in determining a primary electorate, this make a lot of sense to me. And it is important that as other polls are published, the organizations sponsoring these are as transparent with their decision-making as Jenson’s company was.
Let’s now get on to what interested me in the results.
First, the Democratic race for Governor has yet to solidify and large numbers of Democrats do not have a clear preference in the race. As the campaign goes on, can Moran’s base among activist groups and local officials –people who will turn out in June– and Deeds’ regional base and support from fellow Senators effectively neutralize the visibility advantage that McAuliffe will obtain from his statewide television advertising?
Second, the favorable/unfavorable ratios offer a hint that opinion about Terry McAuliffe- pro or con- may become the focal point of the race.
At the moment, 31% of the respondents say they have a favorable opinion of McAuliffe compared to 30% for Moran and 26% for Deeds. This has to be excellent news for McAuliffe insofar as he does not have a long history of involvement in the Virginia Democratic Party. I am certain that the McAuliffe campaign believes that his financial resources and campaign skills will enable him to become even better known as the contest proceeds.
But, at the same time, the number of Democrats who have an unfavorable opinion of McAuliffe (24%) equals the percentage of party members who have unfavorable opinions of Moran (14%) and Deeds (10%) combined. This tells me that there could be an anti-McAuliffe vote in the primary, though at the moment it is not necessarily large enough to deny him the nomination.
Third, the Lieutenant Governor numbers showed Jody Wagner in a small lead over a host of candidates with 9% of likely voters and 73% undecided.
Yes, that was 9%!
This is further evidence of the difficulty that downticket candidates have in making an impression on voters.
Finally, there is a question that I believe will be critical to the Democratic outcome that I hope is asked in future polls.
Which candidate do you think has the best chance of beating Bob McDonnell in November?
By June, this may well be the focus of Democratic attention.
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