1. Who Needs the Sopranos?
When you have the Virginia GOP to keep political junkies entertained? With the Assembly leaving town, it looked as if things might quiet down until the Democratic gubernatorial primary heated up in April. Fortunately, the GOP is offering a bonus showing of its top-rated The Jeff Frederick Show. The latest miniseries- Will He Stay or Will He Go?– appears to have Bob McDonnell and a majority of the state Central Committee on the side of removal. But Frederick has, according to GOP blogs, enlisted the support of House Majority Leader Morgan Griffith and just this week convinced GOP mega-funder David Rensin to assume the position of party finance director. Would Frederick really stay if the his opponents on the Central Committee came up one vote shy of the 75% necessary to remove him officially?
2. “I Couldn’t Believe It”
That’s what Bob McDonnell had to say on a Bearing Drift Podcast about Tim Kaine’s decision to seek a delay in enabling exploration for gas and oil to occur off the Virginia coast. In the interview with Jim Hoeft, McDonnell laments that Virginia would not move rapidly to be the first state on the east coast to drill off-shore. I heard personally from the McDonnell camp this week that they intend to make off-shore drilling a major point of emphasis and distinction in the gubernatorial race. The Bearing Drift interview reinforces the message.
3. Unions
May be the subject of more attention in this gubernatorial campaign since Marshall Coleman suggested that Doug Wilder might be sympathetic to the elimination of Virginia’s Right-to-Work legislation in 1989. McDonnell also comments on this in the Bearing Drift interview, expressing opposition on to the national card-check legislation being considered by Congress (and strongly supported by Jim Webb). He draws specific attention to the appearance of the Democratic aspirants on a picket line outside a Hilton Hotel while the company was getting ready to move its headquarters to the state. Linking his opponents to both unions and the national card-check legislation appears to be part of an effort for McDonnell to win back some members of the business community who supported Tim Kaine and Mark Warner in recent elections. At the same time, I expect that Virginia unions will be more aggressive in requesting support for its agenda by Virginia Democrats. Take a look at Sharon Bulova’s finance reports at vpap.org to see how important union financial backing was to the FairfaxCounty chair race.
4 Without Bush to Kick Around
The impact of the national political climate on the Virginia elections this fall is a big unknown. Democrats have done very well this decade running against George Bush and linking Virginia Republicans to an unpopular President. Washington, D.C. is now owned by the Democrats and no one really knows what effect this will have in November. At the moment, Obama remains relatively popular, though his fate- for good or for ill- is increasingly tied to the state of the eonomy. Congress remains highly unpopular, however, and one can expect the GOP ticket to run, in part, against Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi.
5. Democrats Try to Make Rush the New Bush
Without George Bush presiding over the federal government, the Democrats have been looking for a high profile GOP foil. And it appears that they’ve settled on Rush. Terry McAuliffe spent part of the week inviting Bob McDonnell to join him in denouncing Limbaugh’s statement that he wanted President Obama to fail. While Limbaugh approval numbers in public opinion polls are very low, he may well be the most influential conservative in America today. McAuliffe wants to set up the argument that McDonnell can’t be a problem solving centrist if he’s a friend of Rush.
6. Sean Hannity
Will be speaking at the Virginia GOP Convention this year. Hannity, whose show is second to Rush’s in popularity, was a major advocate for the “Drill Now” position last summer on offshore oil and gas exploration-what I noted above will be a central plank in the McDonnell campaign. I’m certain that the Democrats are combing through his tapes as we speak, looking for statements about which they can invite McDonnell to “join them” in condemning.
7. The 2009 House Elections
Is shaping up to be one of the most interesting set of legislative elections that we’ve seen for quite some time. Despite two Democrats dropping out this week who were getting ready to mount challenges to Speaker Howel and Phil Hamilton, both parties are recruiting first-rate challengers, even in elections that could be uphill climbs. In the Richmond area, it appears that Democrats will be mustering candidates aganst Bill Janis and John O’Bannon. While in Fairfax, the GOP has emlisted a former RNC official, Barbara Comstock, to take on Margi Vanderhye.
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