Virginia Tomorrow

It’s a letter a day!

First, 80% of the GOP State Central Committee.

Next, 6 GOP State Senators.

Then, the entire GOP congressional delegation, including House Minority Whip Eric Cantor.

Today, Howell, Cox and Nixon.

Try to guess whose missive will be arriving tomorrow. It’s almost as much fun as filling out your brackets.

Unless, of course, you’re Jeff Frederick (or any Republican who worries that an internal meltdown will damage the best chance they’ve had in twelve years to take the statehouse). Frederick says that he won’t resign quietly and is campaigning vigorously to retain his position at the upcoming GOP State Central Committee smackdown on April 4.

I generally admire tenacity in politics and have a great fondness for the all the longshot winners we have had in Virginia.

Doug Wilder becoming the Lieutenant Governor in ‘85 after his own party did its best to prevent him from running. George Allen coming from 30 points behind Mary Sue Terry in ‘93 to win in a landslide (after his party chair suggested that he drop back and run for LG).  And Jim Webb turning the tables on Allen in ‘06.  If all of these people has listened to the advice of others, they would have never achieved what they did.

But this is what baffles me about the Frederick story.

What would a win look like?

The party rules say that his detractors need to have 75% of the vote at the smackdown to remove him.

What if they fail by one vote or a couple of votes?

Is this a win? Would he declare victory if only 74% of the Central Committee voted to remove him?

Unless every report I”ve read is seriously wrong about the likely final count, it appears that Frederick is in a “no-win” situation.

He is either booted out or he stays on after an effective vote of no confidence.

This really isn’t much of a choice.