Virginia Democrats have not held a gubernatorial primary in a generation. But there have been three Democratic primaries with statewide constituencies in the last four years.
In 2005, the party held a four way primary for Lieutentant Governor, a state office, that was won by Leslie Byrne.
In 2006, Jim Webb beat Harris Miller in a primary battle for the U.S. Senate nomination and, in 2008, Barack Obama bested Hillary Clinton in the state’s presidential primary.
Since almost everyone acknowledges that turnout is key to primary results, I’ve assembled some data about turnout in the three primaries that might help us begin to think about what we might see in June.
I simply list the top ten jurisdictions in terms of the number of Democratic voters in each of these primaries.
2005 Democratic LG Primary- Top 10 Jurisdictions in Total Voters (Statewide Turnout, 115,379 or 2.62%)
- Fairfax County, 19,045
- Richmond, 8698
- Alexandria, 6007
- Henrico, 5267
- Hampton, 4,936
- Arlington, 4677
- Portsmouth, 4,275
- Norfolk, 4,071
- Virginia Beach, 3,005
- Chesapeake, 2420
2006 U.S. Senate Primary: Top 10 Jurisdictions in Total Voters (Statewide Turnout, 155,784 or 3.45%)
- Fairfax, 35,232
- Arlington, 11,935
- Virginia Beach, 7590
- Alexandria, 6680
- Richmond, 5,425
- Henrico, 5,009
- Norfolk, 4571
- Loudoun, 4,078
- Prince William, 4,091
- Hampton, 3,320
2008 Democratic Presidential Primary: Top 10 Jurisdictions in Total Voters (Statewide Turnout, 986,203 or 22.8%)
- Fairfax County, 160,544
- Virginia Beach, 52,310
- Henrico, 46,899
- Arlington, 44,638
- Prince William, 39,476
- Chesterfield, 38,481
- Richmond, 35,137
- Loudoun, 34,948
- Chesapeake, 30,265
- Norfolk, 30,060
What, if anything, can we learn from this?
First, the turnout for both the Lieutenant Governor’s race in ‘05 and the U.S. Senate race in ‘06 was extraordinarily low, at 2.6% and 3.5% of the registered voters in the state.
If we assume that 35% of the registered voters considered themselves Democrats, in neither race did more than 1 out of 10 Virginians who consider themselves Democrats bother to show up.
I think that we can assume that the Deeds and Moran camps think that the arithmetic this June will resemble the 2005 and 2006 numbers and will not be anything like a repeat of the Obama phenomenon. For his part, McAuliffe is striving to expand the number of participants. A 5% turnout rate would result in approximately 100,000 more voters than in the Webb-Miller race.
Second, the turnout by jurisdiction shows some interesting patterns and variations.
Patterns
Fairfax County is always the largest prize and constitutes anywhere from 16% to 22% of the total electorate in Democratic statewide primaries. No one needs to wonder any longer why Democratic candidates set up campaign headquarters in NOVA and why they argue over straw votes in Fairfax.
Arlington, Richmond, and Henrico (yes, Henrico!) always rank in the top seven jurisdictions for total Democratic turnout, for either state or federal elections.
Variations
In low turnout elections, Alexandria has ranked third (in 2005) and fourth (in 2006) in total Democratic voter turnout. But in the presidential primary of 2008, it was not even in the top ten jurisdictions.
This had nothing to do with what happened in Alexandria, but was the result of a surge in Democratic participation in large suburban and exurban locales.
Chesterfield County, for example, ranked sixth in 2008 but was not in the top ten in either 2005 0r 2006. While Chesterfield is, overall, a Republican county, the absolute number of Democratic voters is very large and are a potential source of votes in a primary that is rarely tapped.
Prince William was fifth in 2008, ninth in 2006, and did not make the top ten in the election for a state office, Lieutenant Governor, in 2005.
There are, one could say, two kinds of voters in the Democratic primaries.
The first are hard-core party loyalists who’ll vote in June when most people don’t even know an election is taking place.
The second are party supporters who turn out in a primary only if a candidate or circumstances motivate and inspire them.
If you think about the McAuliffe campaign- the tv ads, the exuberant personality, the embrace of the theatrical side of politics- it’s obvious that they’re banking on his capacity to motivate some voters who need a little extra encouragement to show up in June.
Bob, there is a nuanced flip side you don’t address in the matter of “voters who need a little extra encouragement to show up in June.” As a candidate, the last thing you want to do is motivate turnout that votes against you. A vote against you that stays at home has exactly the same value to you as one that rouses out of bed early on a rainy day and votes for you. The trick in a primary is not to increase overall turnout, but your turnout. You want to find your votes and turn them out in tip-toe fashion, quietly, without the racket that will wake up the opposition. You don’t do that with theatrics. You don’t do it with television. Shhh! You got to be quiet!