Virginia Tomorrow

What’s up with New York GOP (or formerly GOP) mayors and Virginia Republicans?

You may remember that a few years back Rudy Giuliani and Governor Jim Gilmore got into a dust-up over garbage.

When Gilmore attempted to find a way to limit the amount of trash being imported into the state, Giuliani was widely cited as suggesting that the Commonwealth had a moral obligation to take New York’s garbage off its hands, given the cultural benefits that Virginians obtained on their visits to the Big Apple.

Today, Michael Bloomberg is backing  an ad directed at Bob McDonnell for not closing the “gun show” loophole. In it, Omar Samaha, the brother of a Virginia Tech victim, asks “why is Bob McDonnell protecting the criminals instead of protecting us?” 

The controversy that is likely to ensue over this ad will  make the Gilmore/Giuliani flap look like chicken waste (with apologies to Terry McAuliffe who wants to turn it into energy).

Let’s examine the backdrop.

For two years, the families of the relatives who were killed or injured in the tragic Virginia Tech massacre have been backing legislation to close what has been called the “gun show loophole.”

In Virginia, licensed gun dealers are required to conduct a criminal background check whenever they sell a firearm, including gun shows. Private individuals, however, can sell firearms at gun shows without conducting background checks on purchasers just as they could sell a gun legally in a transaction outside of the show.  At any given gun show, some purchasers are buying guns from licensed dealers with background checks and others are buying them from “occasional” sellers without the checks.

Gun control advocates believe that the “loophole” effectively undermines the entire system of background checks. Opponents contend that there is no “loophole,” just an acknowledgement of rights that private citizens constitutionally possess.

Although the Tech killer, Seung-Hui Cho, purchased his gun with a background check at a store, the families have maintained that closing the “loophole” is necessary to “prevent the next Cho.”

Now to McDonnell.

In the immediate aftermath of the Tech tragedy, he provided legal advice to Governor Kaine as he prepared to issue an Executive Order closing the loophole that was implicated in the Virginia Tech shooting- putting names in the background check database of all people who had been ordered by the court to undergo involuntary mental health treatment, inpatient or outpatient. 

McDonnell also was involved in trying to ensure that public safety considerations occupied a more prominent position in the reform of the mental health system precipitated by the Tech massacre.

But McDonnell has not accepted the position that the gun show “loophole” is directly relevant to the events at Tech or to the effort to prevent future Techs.

What will this mean for the 2009 campaign?

First, I think that Democrats are not unhappy that Mayor Bloomberg has donated half a million dollars to an effort that will attempt to undermine McDonnell’s image as a pragmatic, problem solving conservative. There is always the danger that criticism of Virginians by New Yorkers can easily backfire, but the implicit message of the ad is pulled directly from the Democrats’ playbook.

Second, while all three Democrats seeking the nomination are in favor of closing the ‘loophole,” Second Amendment politics in Virginia are politically complicated and treacherous. Ads such as this one may play well in certain parts of the state, but could generate a larger turnout for McDonnell in other regions.

Finally,  the ad and its aftermath may well indicate what can happen when a Governor’s race becomes nationalized.

It is now possible for outside groups not directly related to any of the campaigns to enter the state and begin to influence the set of issues that the candidates will have to address.

We are likely to see all kinds of interests decide that they want to be on the playing field in Virginia in 2009, regardless of whether a candidate invites them or not.