1. McDonnell in Double Digits
That’s what the latest Rasmussen Poll has Bob McDonnell leading by in the upcoming Governor’s race. Against any of the three Democratic candidates. Early polls in a Governor’s race can be very unreliable. George Allen was down thirty and won in a landslide. But McDonnell has to be very happy that he extended his lead right when the final episodes of the Jeff Frederick Show were captivating political insiders. The McDonnell camp’s assertion that the Frederick matter was just a distraction that is irrelevant to most voters seems to be confirmed by the latest poll numbers.
2. Whose Money is Purer?
Because money is so important to campaigns, candidates and their staffs tend to believe that voters pay more attention to who donated it than is typically the case. We saw that Bill Clinton and The Donald opened their checkbooks for Terry McAuliffe. And the Times and the Post ran stories about the defense contractors who received solicitations to donate to Brian Moran from his brother, Congressman Jim. McAuliffe says that he won’t take money from Dominion, but Jeff Schapiro ran a story noting that this does not mean he’ll reject dollars from current and former Dominion execs who donate individually. My own sense is that most voters have what I would label a “casual cynicism” about money in politics- they know that campaigns are expensive and that politicans have to be funded by the well heeled. And barring a huge scandal, they’d prefer to pay attention to what they have to say and not to who helped them pay for the air time.
3. Heartless?
That’s what the Democrats are calling Republicans who voted against taking federal stimulus dollars to expand unemployment insurance benefits to part-time workers. The Democrats believe that they have an issue for both the gubernatorial and House campaigns and they are going to do all they can to keep the populist fire under it burning. The GOP has an argument to make about whether the changes the Governor proposed will cost Virginians jobs in the long run. But they have yet to make it effectively. Democrats won round one of the PR contest. The GOP will gain some financial support from the business community for opposing the Kaine’s position. But they’ll need to develop a concise and sharper message to prevent the matter from becoming an electoral liability.
4. What About the Tea Parties?
Thousands of Virginians took part in tea parties all around the state this week, often coming out in miserable weather to send a message to our political leaders. Now just what this message is has been the subject of some contention. Many Democrats dismissed the events as relatively small gatherings of right-wing talk radio followers that will have no bearing on upcoming political contests. They point to the prominent role that folks like Glenn Beck and Sean Hannity had in promoting the activities. This may be true. But. I had a sense that the tea parties also had a Perot-like atmosphere, not filled entirely with activists but with folks who are only intermittently involved in politics and believe that things are headed in the wrong direction. I don’t exactly know where the populist sentiment will wind up this election cycle, but parties will ignore this at their peril.
5. Virginia Supremes Get Refunds Rolling
The City of Lynchburg will be writing English Construction a refund check for more than $185,000. Other localities may also be cranking up a refund machine that they weren’t intending to be using. Here’s the story. Construction companies headquartered in one locality often set up shop for extended periods of time in another when they have a big project under contract in the second locality. Lynchburg and most other localities in Virginia that impose a “gross receipts” tax have required companies headquartered in their jurisdictions to pay taxes on revenues they may have garnered from other localities, even if this second jurisdiction does not have a gross receipts tax of its own. English Construction filed suit against the City of Lynchburg, claiming that they shouldn’t have to pay a tax in Lynchburg when they had set up shop for a project in another locality. The Virginia Supreme Court ruled on behalf on the company’s behalf. You can be certain that a number of construction companies will be visiting their local Finance Departments this week.
6. Webb’s Criminal Justice Tour
It wasn’t your typical Meet and Greet. Jim Webb toured the overcrowded Richmond City Jail this week and then met with 100 people attending the AA session at The Healing Place. It’s all part of his effort to have a federal commission on prsion reform established. Webb’s impact on national issues for a freshmen Senator has been considerable. Prison reform is not what most Senators consider a “re-election issue.” But Webb doesn’t mind taking up issues that he considers important, regardless of the conventional wisdom about the political payoff. If anyone is going to get prison reform on the national agenda, Webb might well be the person.
7. Bloomberg Funds Anti-McDonnell Ad on the “Gun Show Loophole”
The New York City Mayor contributed half a million dollars to a group running an ad in Virginia attempting to undermine Bob McDonnell’s image as a pragmatic, problem solving conservative. In the television spot, Omar Samaha, the brother of a Virginia Tech victim asks “why is Bob McDonnell protecting criminals instead of protecting us.”
Virginia is one of only two gubernatorial races in the nation this year. I’m predicting that we’re going to see quite a few more of these kind of ads where national interests utilize the Virginia campaign as a venue for their agenda.
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