It has been fascinating to watch Terry McAuliffe, someone who is extremely familiar with the national terrain, negotiate the political landscape in Virginia.
I have become particularly interested in observing how he is working to be both the candidate of change and the legitimate heir of Mark Warner and Tim Kaine.
On one hand, McAuliffe seems to be most comfortable when he embraces his status as an outsider and talks abut the changes he can bring to Virginia.
Reports about the Democratic forum sponsored by the Richmond Crusade for Voters the other evening noted that McAuliffe maintained that Virginia needed “out of the box” thinking and someone willing to really shake things up to address the magnitude of the challenges that we face.
The day after the forum McAuliffe spoke about the necessity of ramping up our economic development efforts and once again lamented the fact that Virginia was not even a serious bidder for major projects and business relocations that went to other states.
In this respect,McAuliffe’s appeal is reminiscent of the George Allen campaign in 1993 when he insisted that he would make Virginia “open for business,” after the Democrats in the Assembly even resisted Doug Wilder’s initiative to bring the Washington Redskins to the state.
But while Virginia Democrats may want change, they may not want too much of it. After all, the Democrats have held the Governorship for the last eight years and they would like to keep it in their hands.
My guess is that for many activist Democrats the rhetoric of change doesn’t resonate very deeply, unless, of course, you’re talking about a Democratic takeover of the House.
So here McAuliffe s working to position himself as the candidate of continuity, the authentic heir of Warner and Kaine.
He notes that Kaine never served in the legislature (unlike his two opponents) and that both he and Warner are businessmen who know how to attract investment that will create jobs.
Yet there is one sticky question.
If Warner and Kaine were so laudable, why does McAuliffe believe that our economic development efforts are misdirected? Haven’t the Democrats controlled the executive branch for the last eight years?
Yes, says McAuliffe, but they’ve been stymied by those terrible Republicans in the House and, if we just toss them out of power, the Democrats will get Virginia moving again.
My sense is that McAuilffe’s strongest is appeal is that of the outsider who can take a fresh look at what we’re doing and bring some necessary changes to the state.
In 2008, Virginia Democrats embraced Obama, dedicated themselves to turning the state blue, and succeeded in carrying the state for a Democrat for the first time in more than forty years.
But I’m wondering whether Democratic primary voters really believe that Virginia needs a major shakeup or would simply prefer to see the bluish tint in Virginia politics go a little deeper.
If the primary is a “change” election, I think that McAuliffe stands a good chance to win.
But if it is “continuity” that the Democratic primary voters want, the outcome is far more difficult to predict. Moran and Deeds can legitimately argue that were fighting for Democrats in Virginia long before it became popular to vote for them.
In a “continuity” election, McAuliffe’s chances will be dependent on convincing Democrats that he is far and away the candidate with the best chance of defeating Bob McDonnell.
At the moment, it is not entirely clear what direction the Democratic primary will turn. But as I continue to look at polls that show a very competitive race, I am getting the sense that they’re a fair number of Democrats who believe that “change” means defeating Republicans, not altering the direction their party is moving.
Perhaps we Democrats ought to think in terms of the first priority - who has the best chance of beating the Republican? To me, in my experience, my least favorite Democrat is far superior, will look out for my interests, far more than any Republican. Terry has shown overwhelmingly that he can raise the money needed to wage a fierce campaign, and that is the name of the game if Democrats want to win. Furthermore, anyone who doesn’t think a major shake-up is desired, needed, just doesn’t understand what average folks are confronting in this economy.