Virginia Tomorrow

1. You Can’t Make This Stuff Up

The Colonial Beach City Council has banned the town’s Mayor, Frederick Rummage, from showing up in City Hall unless he has special permission. The Fredericksburg Free Lance Star reported that a resolution sponsored by Councilman Sparky Ridegely said that some members of the town staff feel “uncomfortable, fearful and intimidated” when Rummage is around.  Worker complaints have left the Council worried about possible lawsuits so they’ve ordered the City Attorney to send Rummage a “no trespassing” letter. I just have one question. Where does Mayor Rummage meet his constituents?

2. Radicalization Nodes?

A report issued by a division of the state police called Virgina universities a “radicalization node for almost every type of extremist group,”  with special concern expressed about the state’s historically black colleges and universities and Regent University, the school founded by Pat Robertson in Virginia Beach.  Embarassed by the claims, Governor Kaine launched an investigation into both the report and its public release. I suspect that Bob McDonnell may have something to say as well in defense of the university where he received his law degree.  The report rivals the national study released a few weeks ago which worried that angry veterans and talk radio listeners might be fertile recruiting territory for extremist recruiters.

3. Dear Bob

Governor Kaine wrote Bob McDonnell a letter this week about unemployment insurance benefits, a few days after McDonnell and the Republicans suggested that Virginia Democrats convince their colleagues in Congress to allocate unemployment stimulus dollars without requiring the state to make changes to our laws that will have a negative impact on business costs and job creation.   The Governor suggested that the GOP was mistaken about the law and was sending $125 million of Virginia taxpayer dollars to other states in order to score an ideological point. Virginia Republicans have mobilized a large segment of the business community on behalf of their position, but the Democrats believe that they’re still winning the public relations battle and actually went on a statewide “tour” in “support of the unemployed.”  My sense is that it will be difficult for the GOP to win the PR contest on this issue directly and they’ll be better off fighting it on their overall approach to job creation and taxes.

4. The Magnification of Small Differences

In politics, symbolism is often as important as substance and nowhere is this more true than in intraparty contests.  At a Democratic debate this week, Moran separated himself from Deeds and McAuliffe by noting that if he is elected Governor, he will work to repeal the Marriage Amendment that was passed in 2006. This is part of Moran’s overall strategy to adopt stands that will signal activist communities that he is the most progressive candidate in the race. McAuliffe and Deeds noted that since this did not have any real chance of succeeding, they planned to work on GLBT issues that could improve conditions in a concrete and tangible way.  In the end, I doubt that there would be much difference in policy, for example, between McAuliffe and Moran, but primary debates are sometimes more about purity than pragmatism.  In fact, the Deeds camp later released an analysis of Moran’s voting record and public statements on GLBT issues and the marriage amendment which suggested that, as a legislator, Moran’s position wasn’t very different from the one that Deeds and McAuliffe had artiuclated earlier in the week.

5. The Media Yawns

This was the general reaction earlier this week to the release of the McDonnell-Bolling Energy Plan. It was far more interesting (and more fun) to cover the Dems starting to tear each other up at a series of debates and public forums. I could be wrong, but I think that energy issues and the connection between energy and jobs are likely to be very important in the general election campaign. Where are we going with coal in Virginia? Should we be drilling offshore? Should there be mandatory percentages on the use of renewables? Are green jobs the future of the Virginia economy? These are questions that are going to matter for the very first time in a statewide election in Virginia, even if you would not have known it last week.

6. How Many Local Officials Does a Clinton Equal?

That’s the question that comes to  mind watching Bill Clinton stump for Terry McAuliffe. Brian Moran and Creigh Deeds have pointed to their endorsements by hundreds of local officials to distinguish their campaigns from McAuliffe’s, which they claim is supported by national money and by people who do not have a direct stake in the future of Virginia. The McAuliffe campaign just announced that Clinton will be returning to Virginia on his behalf, this time to NOVA and Hampton Roads. With most of the Virginia-based heavyweights sitting on the sidelines, McAuliffe appears to think that one endorsement from Clinton may equal the impact of 50 to 100 delegates, supervisors and councilpeople. Is all politics local as Tip O’Neill maintained? Or does celebrity matter far more than we like to acknowledge?

7. He Works Hard for His Money

The remarkable surge of voters for Barack Obama was decisive in enabling Tom Perriello to defeat long-time incumbent Virgil Goode last November. The conventional wisdom is that congressional incumbents are most vulnerable in their first re-election try. The GOP is certainly thinking about targeting Perriello’s seat in 2010, either in a rematch with Goode or with a new aspirant. But it is also clear that Perriello is not going to be a sitting target. He’s active across the range of his district and is working hard to bring stimulus dollars to hard hit areas such as Danville and Martinsville. Given Perriello’s work ethic, he may be far tougher to defeat than the party identification numbers in the district may indicate.