Lost amidst the recent chatter about whether Rush Limbaugh is the de-facto leader of the Republican Party and whether the National Council for a New America (NCNA) can effectively re-brand the GOP is a more fundamental question: Can the GOP, which most polls show is at historic lows in popularity, expand and win elections while staying true to its core conservative first principles?
The answer to this question may lie in this year’s gubernatorial race in Virginia. Republicans who lamented in 2008 that they would have been better off with a more conservative candidate may get a mini-redo this year in the Commonwealth with Bob McDonnell, the former Attorney General and Republican nominee for Governor. Like McCain, McDonnell, who is running unopposed, has had time to craft his message while Democrats duke it out in a contested primary. Like McCain (Navy), McDonnell has a military background, having served in the Army.
In almost every other way, though, McDonnell seems to be the anti-McCain. He is as disciplined as McCain was undisciplined; as conservative as McCain was historically moderate; as even-headed as McCain was temperamental; as practical as McCain was gimmicky.
Further, Virginia, which mirrored the nation by supporting Obama by a 53%-46% margin, has been a testing ground of late for national politics. In fact, it has been emblematic of Democratic successes and Republican mishaps this decade with the type of voters that both parties, in Virginia and nationally, need to court to win elections.
At the turn of the century, Democrats faced challenges with culturally conservative white and rural voters that mirror the current image and perception problems Republicans have with minority and suburban voters. Democratic consultants wondered why policies and ideas they felt helped these voters were not being heard just as Republicans are wondering why minority and suburban voters who may be culturally and economically conservative are tuning out their message.
In 2001, Virginia Democrats and Mark Warner realized that no matter how fervently they thought their policies would benefit lower income white and rural voters, Democrats would be tuned out by these voters if they felt Democrats disrespected their culture and values. Though Warner, an Ivy Leaguer with Northeastern roots who hailed from Northern Virginia (Alexandria), symbolically ran as a “‘good ole boy from ‘Novaville’” and sponsored a NASCAR race car, his campaign was about more than mere symbolism. He planted himself in southern and southwestern Virginia and gained the trust of these voters, becoming the first Virginian Democrat in a generation to win the rural vote en route to the Governor’s mansion.
Four years later, Tim Kaine never hesitated in talking openly about how his Catholic faith impacted his views on public policy, which softened him with moderate and conservative voters who may have otherwise dismissed him for being too liberal or culturally out of tune with them, given his stance against capital punishment during the gubernatorial campaign. He became Warner’s successor.
Yet, as much as Democrats have succeeded in Virginia, Republicans have blundered.
In 2006, then-Senator George Allen lost a race he had no business losing against Democrat Jim Webb by introducing Virginians and Americans to the word “macaca,” a derogatory word used to describe dark-skinned minorities. More recently, during the 2008 campaign, embattled Republican Party of Virginia Chairman Jeff Frederick inexplicably, in front of a Time Magazine reporter no less, urged door-to-door canvassers to compare Obama to Osama bin Laden.
Just as white rural voters a decade ago automatically tuned out Democrats who they perceived to rail against guns and religion, minorities and independent suburban voters of today will tune out any Republican, like Frederick or Allen, who they perceive as intolerant or reactionary no matter how much Republican policies may favor them. Allen’s and Frederick’s comments offended minorities in the same way culturally conservative white voters would have been offended if a Democratic candidate had mocked NASCAR fans, church-goers, or hunters.
McDonnell has an opportunity this year to change the perception of a conservative Republican. His colleagues, even those on the other side of the aisle, have praised his collegiality and his ability to disagree without being disagreeable. His mild manners will certainly make it difficult for Democrats to paint him as the stereotypical conservative who is nasty, angry and a firebrand just as conservatives had trouble painting Obama in 2008 as an “angry black man” or a radical liberal even though the non-partisan National Journal ranked him the most liberal Senator.
Republicans have failed recently to win over women (Sarah Palin) and minorities (Bobby Jindal and Michael Steele) through symbols alone. To win the Governor’s race this fall, McDonnell must appeal to minorities, suburban and exurban women, and independent voters by first gaining their trust, as Newt Gingrich described, through the politics of inclusion and sound, practical and competent policy solutions as opposed to mere symbolic outreach.
When Mark Warner won the 2001 Governor’s race in Virginia, national Democrats paid attention and studied how he did it and eventually replicated his strategy with other candidates such as Jon Tester and Heath Shuler.
If McDonnell wins this fall while garnering considerable support among Independent-leaning voters while maintaining his conservative credentials, McDonnell may provide the GOP with a blueprint for a potential national resurgence and become a spokesman the GOP sorely needs and is currently devoid of.
For some reason, National Republicans and the chattering class have not been paying attention to McDonnell-he never is mentioned as a potential new face or leader of the GOP. Should he win this fall, the klieg lights will definitely be on him.
Tony Lee is writing a book about how the GOP can appeal to minorities and Generation X and Y voters while staying true to its conservative principles and values and how Virginia is replacing California as the nation’s new harbinger state. He blogs and opines at www.cpszone.com.
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