Virginia Tomorrow

I had the opportunity today to moderate the gubernatorial candidates forum in McLean sponsored by Virginia FREE, one of the leading business organizations in the Commonwealth.

All four candidates attended. Each was given five minutes to speak. I followed up with approximately eight minutes of Q&A designed to probe their views on major issues business issues or on matters related to their politics that would be of interest to the business community.

I have always found it difficult to declare winners and losers in debates and forums in which I’m a participant. During the event, I tend to focus on the job at hand- keeping it moving smoothly, striving to be as fair as possible to candidates putting themselves through the campaign grinder, and asking questions that can elicit some real information about the big issues that the state faces. It always takes me a while to process and reflect on what I’ve heard. For those who are interested in a contemporaneous account, WAPO’s Roz Helderman posted an informative and irreverent liveblog.

Here are my impressions, 10 hours and an afternoon drive from NOVA to Richmond later.

Background

As everyone knows, the business communty is a crucial source of dollars in Virginia political campaigns. In the last two gubernatorial cycles and in selected General Assembly races,  Democrats have done very well in garnering business support.  The business community’s support for tax increases to fund transportation improvements and interest in channeling more resources to higher education worked to the Democrats advantage. The issue landscape has been expanded in  2009, with matters such as card check, continued support for the coal industry, and unemployment insurance benefits on the front burner, items where the GOP believes that its positions are more aligned with business interests

McDonnell-

With three Democrats still slugging it out for their nomination, he’s in a comfort zone right now. Or at least as much as any Republican can be comfortable while the Democratic Governors Association is spending more than $2.2 million in running ads against him.

McDonnell believes that his position on card check and his support for developing all forms of energy, including coal and offshore natural gas and oil, will work to his advantage in the general election.

He acknowledged the need for new revenue in transportation (though he remained fairly vague about how much and how we’ll get it) and he (smartly) made a couple of very specific pledges about road improvements in NOVA that will occur if he’s elected.

Perhaps the biggest challenge that McDonell will face with business leaders is convincing them that his major focus will not be promoting a conservative social agenda. He answered a question I asked in this regard by noting that his major priorities will be on the economic challenges that confront ordinary Virginians today. He did not backtrack on or renounce any of his deeply held views on social issues, but certainly implied that creating a business climate that will promote economic recovery and long-term prosperity would be focus number one.  My sense is that he’ll be answering questions about his social views throughout the camapign as the Democrats will attempt to make this a major line of attack. 

Bottom line- McDonnell is a strong GOP candidate who will run a very competitive race.

McAuliffe

Politicans sometimes complain that they hate campaigning and just want to govern.

Not McAuliffe.

In the 1950’s and 1960’s, they called Hubert Humphrey “The Happy Warrior.” McAuliffe’s a 21st Century version.

He loves working a room. He’s naturally curious, spending time at lunch talking to a beer industry exec about why people are switching to beer and what they’re drinking. And he can’t wait to be the state’s chief economic development salesman. Let’s Make a Deal has got to be his favorite tv show of all time.

So.

He said that the Governor needed more power and more money at his disposal to negotiate deals with companies thinking of relocating. He observed that we needed an “honest discussion” about transportation revenue (read: we need to “raise some taxes” but I’m not ging to be proposing these in the middle of a recession) that he would facilitate. He claimed that McDonnell’s assertion about a potential royalty bonanza from offshore drilling was bogus (McAuliffe said that we’d get nothing under current law). When asked about he could get anything done without having the kind of relationships that comes from an extended history of involvement in the state, he said that we needed a Governor (like Mark Warner)  who wasn’t already captured by the system.

He implied that card check was essentially a diversionary issue, noting that until some version of it actually passed the federal government there was nothing to which he could really react. And, in my opinion, he punted on a question about whether we had adequate statewide higher ed policies.

Bottom line- McAuliffe is a formidable candidate for the nomination. I  still don’t know if he’ll win the party’s nod, but he probably has a larger presence than the other two contenders throughout the state and his staffers are very confident that the ground game he’s touting will actually materialize.

Deeds

Last week the Deeds campaign had informed the event organizers that a schedule conflict prevented them from attending.  But he was able to rearrange his schedule to participate. Some have suggested that the Washington Post endorsement may have had something to do with it. If the Post endorsed me, I’d find a way to get to NOVA too.

Deeds said flat out that he’ll be the Transportation Governor and, if needed, call a special session to deal with it. He said that he knew how to make the legislative process work and that, as a result, he was the best prepared candidate to be Governor. Jerry Baliles was sitting at his table and Deeds noted that the last major transportation initiative in the mid-1980’s was passed by a Governor who had been a legislator. While he agreed with McAuliffe’s notion that legislative changes could make it easier to negotiate business deals, he reminded the audience that we are already at the top of the rankings as a business friendly state. He also reminded the audience that we were near the bottom in support for higher education, something that needed to be remedied. He essentially shared McAuliffe’s position on card check, saying that no bill had been passed and that it was unlikely to be a matter where the Governor spent much time.

Bottom Line- The Deeds campaign believes it is surging. They have a feeling that some of the attacks on McAuliffe may have helped Deeds more than Moran. And they believe that the Post endorsement has given instant credibility to a campaign that wasn’t getting much respect.

Moran

This is a race that has been directed all year at Democratic primary voters and the attendees were probably not the  target demographic of the campaign.

This was Moran’s basic pitch: if you want someone who is willing to tell it like it is and make the tough decisions, I’m your guy.

He pointed to the position that he has taken on energy development as a good example of his willingness to be a genuine leader. Moran claimed that only by going green and developing a mandatory standard for the use of renewables in energy production will Virginia provide the incentive for businesses to actually develop more efficient energy technologies. He noted that while everyone else was talking about new transportation revenue in vague terms, he had voted for a tax increase for it. And he said that McAuliffe understated the economic development achievements that Virginia had accomplished in recent years, citing Forbes.com and other ratings of state economic vitality.

Bottom Line-

What’s that Bruce Springsteen song- No Retreat, No Surrender?

Moran’s team is planning for a low turnout election, they know who their target audience is inside the Democratic Party, they don’t think that either McAuliffe or Deeds has an identifiable base,  and they’re going to work the plan until June 9.