Virginia Tomorrow

I was able to spend some time this evening at the Marriott talking with convention attendees about tomorrow’s event and the upcoming campaigns.

A very unscientific sample, based on who I happened to see.

Here’s what I heard.

The AG Race

The Cuccinelli camp appears to be quietly confident about a first ballot victory. One member of the General Assembly told me that Cuccinelli’s total could go as high as 65%. Other folks said that Cuccinelli had run a sophisticated delegate identification operation and had a good sense of who would be showing up in the morning.

But I also spoke to others who saw things very differently.

At the gala where Mitt Romney spoke, the applause when Brownlee was introduced was said to have been striking. One person described it to me as almost as loud as when McDonnell was introduced. (Whether gala attendees are representative of the entire convention delegation is a critical question.)

I also heard a little bit of gender spin- that Brownlee runs well with GOP women groups and that the support he is receiving from Marti Kilgore is very helpful.

Not a single Brownlee supporter to who I spoke predicted a first ballot victory- the hope in both the Brownlee and Foster camps is that if they can deny Cuccinelli a first ballot victory, anything can happen at a convention.

The Party Chair and the “Grassroots”

I didn’t speak to many people who had a real good grasp of the party chair election and who could analyze it with the degree of nuance that was applied to the AG contest.

But I did get a sense that there is a grassroots frustration with a  party that they believe is driven too much by consultants and not enough by core values.

And this led to me think more about the gubernatorial race than the party chair selection.

Will Bob McDonnell run a bold campaign that attempts to reframe the Commonwealth’s dialogue on spending and/or taxes in a big way or play it much safer, defending the lead he has in the polls and relying on his high favorables to cvarry him through November?

Given the bitterness of the Democratic primary, there may be a temptation in the McDonnell camp not to take too many risks.

But I’m not certain that this would be the best approach, either with the GOP “grassroots” or the general public.  I tend to think that in these uncertain times the candidate who appears to be the strongest leader will have  the best shot at winning.

We’ll see in the morning how the McDonnell team wants to frame the choice in November.