Virginia Tomorrow

Who will win June 9^th Democratic Primary? My answer: Bob McDonnell. 

Let me explain. 

At the 49^th running of the Daytona 500 in 2007, Clint Bowyer spectacularly wrecked his car during the final lap; his car flipped and skidded across the finish line upside down. 

In the Democratic Primary, Terry McAuliffe, Brian Moran, and Creigh Deeds are racing three-wide down the stretch, and one thing is clear: the nominal winner will tumble across the finish line, most likely after having been in a wreck, perhaps even upside down. 

Of course, there is always the possibility that the conflict loving media may elevate this primary and allow whoever emerges as the winner to gain advantages in name identification and organization. That was what basically happened during the 2008 Presidential primary between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. But this Democratic primary may not have that same effect.

Rival consultants, especially from the Moran and McAuliffe camps, perhaps continuing the Howard Dean vs. the Clinton feud/war by other means, are throwing barbs in the press and online via platforms such as Twitter. The primary has gotten heated and nasty down the stretch.  

Creigh Deeds’ and Brian Moran’s campaigns have attacked front-runner Terry McAuliffe, who seems to be incapable of running out of energy and enthusiasm, mercilessly on a range of issues, implying that he is a carpetbagger, a hustler, a huckster, disingenuous (referring to his boasting that he created hundreds of thousands of jobs in Virginia), and suspect in his business dealings (Global Crossing). Moran even implied that McAuliffe pimped out (”booking” is the term of art that was used) the Lincoln Bedroom in the White House.  

Moran has been accused of swerving every which way on issues (most notably on gay marriage and coal) to curry favor to the most liberal and activists Democrats, who, of course, are most likely to vote in the primary. Allegations have been made that he is tied too closely to his older brother and his defense-contractor friends. Accusations have been made that his campaign handlers and managers helped out their cronies. In debates, he and his campaign have come off as lacking core principles and themes, perhaps most evident when he looked down and read what seemed like talking points against McAuliffe instead of looking him straight in the eye and telling him what he-not his handlers-thought of McAuliffe. Recently, the campaign has been mocked for the ads they ran in Hampton Roads implying that McAuliffe did not want Barack Obama to win the general election even though Moran’s top advisors supported Hillary Clinton in the primary and Moran stood on the sidelines during the primary, proverbially putting his finger up into the wind.  

Deeds, endorsed by the Washington Post, may be the most earnest candidate of the bunch and the toughest candidate for Bob McDonnell to beat. Yet, Democrats have started whisper campaigns against him, implying that someone from Bath County may have trouble getting votes in populous Northern Virginia. Some have also picked up on his recent flubbing of the minimum wage question and have wondered if he, though he may be the candidate one would most want to have a beer with, is simply too gaffe prone to manage Virginia and her economy (this attitude perhaps is symbolic of the elitist tilt in the state’s Democratic leadership).  

Mind you, all these attacks and charges have been levied by Democrats. 

All the while, Bob McDonnell has been fueling his fresh and un-dented race car, ready for his battered Democratic opponent who may be running on empty on June 9^th.  

Unlike NASCAR though, where drivers get a week’s rest before the next race, the next race begins the very minute the winner is announced on June 9^th. 

In that race, the early smart money has to be on McDonnell.  

Tony Lee is writing a book about how the GOP can appeal to minorities and Generation X and Y voters while staying true to its conservative principles and values and how Virginia is replacing California as the nation’s new harbinger state. Follow him on twitter: @Thetonylee.