The Pre-Election Obituary: Occurs when the media and other cognoscenti decide in advance of a single vote being cast that a candidate has not lived up to expectations. Most often published in response to bad polling numbers, a Pre-Election Obituary can occur even in their absence if observers are unhappy with the nature of a candidate’s campaign. The Pre-Election Obituary is sometimes known as the Bad Samaritan Maneuver: if you see a candidate lying by the side of the road, kick ‘em.
They did it to Brian Moran last week.
With ten days left in the campaign and no one really certain who is going to show up and vote on June 9th, the “smart money” decided that he was toast.
As dead as John McCain was in early 2008 in his quest to obtain the GOP presidential nomination.
It was not a great week for Moran. The Post’s endorsement of Deeds had shaken up the race and had catalyzed what was widely described as a Deeds surge.
This was followed by an article in Politico in which Democrats, named and unnamed, unloaded on Moran.
Kristian Denny Todd noted that “Brian, at every turn where he should have been demonstrating stength, has failed.”
An unnamed Democrat used a cloak of anonymity to observe that “there is a growing sense about the Moran campaign that Brian is a very nice guy, but he just fell apart when Terry entered the race.”
It’s perfectly legitimate to raise questions about Moran’s campaign (and anyone else’s).
I think that Deeds has probably benefitted from his attacks on McAuliffe. And, in my experience over the years, Moran is such a decent and likeable guy that I’ve been surprised that his campaign did not do a better job of highlighting one of his inherent strengths.
I have also heard a lot of Democrats complain that Trippi will never stop re-running the Dean campaign
But.
Failed.
Fell apart.
Strong stuff.
Perhaps.
But he does have close to three quarters of a million cash on hand for the final push.
And he has a genuine base in the 8th congressional district (SurveyUSA has him running well throughout Northern Virginia).
I keep thinking that the answer to every big question about the race is uncertain.
Will Virginia Democrats support a candidate who has had few ties to state politics, even if he is a dynamic campaigner?
Will Moran run up a large margin in NOVA than can’t be offset elsewhere?
Will Deeds run well in the urban areas of Hampton Roads?
Will the African-American turnout be large and will African-American voters favor one candidate decisively?
Is the McAuliffe ground game as strong as his staff tell you it is?
What’s the over/under number for turnout? And what willl the regional breakout on turnout be?
Depending on your answer to these questions, a plausible case can be made for a victory by any one of the three candidates.
I might assign different odds to each of their prospects. But I am going to wait until next Wednesday to write the obituaries.
Politics is a funny business.
I’ve seen too many Lazarus acts to take all the death notices seriously.
This is a great column and raises excellent points. I’ve heard people say that Trippi is becoming like what Bob Shrum used to be — applying a recurring template to all candidates instead of tailoring a campaign and messages that takes into consideration the particular candidate’s unique strengths/weaknesses. It was once said that Bob Shrum’s candidates speeches all had the same variation/themes across two decades.
Bob, your observations are spot-on. So much of a primary, though, is echo-chamber. Inside baseball. Despite the millions spent, there is not 1 in 10 Virginians who know a primary is at hand–and less than that the number who care, or will participate. My guess is turnout will not top 7%. And it is just a guess. I look at the same data everybody looks at. It is never all in the numbers, though. There are nuances, intangibles, that are sometimes predictive. I do know that panic and desperation telegraph, that campaigns that fall into the trap of believing their own press releases do so at their peril, and I know that paid enthusiasm has to be discounted. And I know this: if we knew, knew absolutely, what was going to happen in elections we wouldn’t have to hold them. All three of these men are good, decent human beings and I appreciate what they subject themselves to in pursuit of their beliefs. BKD
Excellent article.
Well said.
Of note in the polls is the fact that despite everything that has been thrown at Brian Moran he has not lost ground. He is the only candidate to remain steady throughout. Sure, he hasn’t seen large jumps like McAuliffe did or Deeds is currently, but he’s held pretty solid and that could mean a lot more than anyone thinks.