Virginia Tomorrow

1. Timing is Everything

In 2005 Creigh Deeds lost the election for Attorney General to Bob McDonnell by a couple hundred votes. Since 2005, Deeds has thought that if the campaign had lasted just one more day he would have won because his ads tying McDonnell to Pat Robertson were having a noticeable impact in NOVA.  This year, Deeds hopes that he is surging at just the right time.  He is running well in the polls and, in the last few days, has received considerable financial support from big dollar donors.  Deeds’ surge in the polls was confirmed when the Moran campaign sent out a mailer attacking Deeds as a Poster Boy for the NRA ( Terry McAuliffe must have wondered what was happening-  isn’t he supposed to be the target of all the attack ads?).  On Tuesday, the Deeds campaign will be crossing its fingers and hoping that in 2009 it didn’t surge a day too early.

2. “Shut Up, Its Not Funny”

That’s what one reporter told me Creigh Deeds said when his campaign manager woke him up with a telephone call telling him that The Washington Post would be endorsing him the next morning. I can’t vouch for the absolute truth of the story, but it captures the wacky unpredictability of campaigns better than any line I’ve heard in recent years. We all know that newspaper endorsements don’t matter any longer, unless you’re The Washington Post and you endorse the one non-NOVAite in a three person Democratic primary.

3. The Ground Game

Terry McAuliffe’s been the high profile guy in the campaign. The unconventional ideas. The large personality.  The big money. But if McAuliffe wins on Tuesday, it’ll be the stuff you don’t see that will do it. For months the campaign has insisted that it has the best field operation, that it has done an excellent job in identifying and communicating with its voters, and that it will be able to get them to the polls on Tuesday. Since as recently as seven months ago, there was no such thing as a “McAuliffe Democrat” in Virginia, T-MAC needs the ground game to counter the long-standing ties Deeds and Moran have established across the state.  We’ll know in two days just how powerful it really is.

4. “Staying Out”

Just last week Congressman  Bobby Scott was quoted in the Politico saying that he was “staying out” of the Democratic primary. This week Democratic voters in his district received a glossy mailer from Terry McAuliffe with pictures of the Congressman and the Candidate together and a testimonial about what a great governor the Candidate would make from the Congressman.  I think that Deeds and Moran may be wondering what the difference is between an endorsement and  ”staying out.” But if McAuliffe manages to win both the primary and the general election, Scott’s unique way of “staying out” could give him considerable influence in a McAuliffe administration.

5. Who Will  Republicans Vote For

In Tuesday’s Democratic primary? Most, of course, will not vote at all. But I’m getting the sense that the Republicans who consider it their civic duty to vote in Democratic primaries are increasingly leaning toward Terry McAuliffe, on the grounds that his roles as DNC Chair and Clinton fundraiser provide the easiest targets for the GOP ticket. If the race is as close as some polls suggest, it would be remarkable if Republican voters turn out to be the deciding factor in the Democratic primary. I tend to believe that these co-called strategic calculations are often dead wrong and that McAuliffe, if he wins, is likley to be a far stronger candidate than some Republicans think.

6. Shannon-Cuccinelli

The AG race is set. Ken Cuccinelli won a contested nomination battle relatvely easily and Steve Shannon is the one Democratic nominee for statewide office that did not face a primary battle. The lack of competition enabled Shanno to accumulate a million dollar bankroll. Some Democrats are saying that Shannon will win easily beause Cuccinelli’s social conservatism is at odds with Virginia voters. But the Democrats haven’t won an Attorney General election since 1989. And didn’t they the same thing four years ago about Bob McDonnell? I’ve heard Shannon on the stump and he is doing a good job reminding his fellow Democrats that the public often thinks that Republicans are a good fit for the AG job and the Dems will have to fight to regain it.

7. Wagner-Signer

Mke Signer has done an excellent job speaking about redefining the Lieutenant Governor’s role as a “public advocate” for Virginia’s citizens. His idea is consistent with what a lot of citizens would like to see from their government. I think, however, that he is a decided underdog against Jody Wagner, who brings a wealth of state government experience to the race.  If Wagner does get the nomination, I hope that both she and Bill Bolling steal parts of Signer’s idea.