I’m writing a book on how Virginia is becoming the nation’s bellwether state. As NBC Political Director Chuck Todd frequently mentions and has written extensively about, all of the cross-tabs in the 2008 post-election polling shows that the nation and Virginia were in lock-step on most of the major issues. On the most important issue, Virginians voted for President Obama 53%-47%. So did the nation.
This race pits a Republican who will be competitive in Northern Virginia and a Democrat who will be more than competitive downstate. A Republican who once voted for gun-control and a pro-second Amendment Democrat.
It is a testament to Virginians and her politics that these types of candidates consistently pop up more often than not in the Commonwealth. Perhaps this is why many pundits believe the Republican Revival, symbolized by the Contract with America that people like John Kasich, Ed Gillespie and Newt Gingrich crafted, started in Virginia. Analysts also point to Mark Warner’s election in 2001 as the beginning of the Democratic revival in national politics.
No one knows who will win in November, but one thing is for sure. Years later, this election will be looked at as a seminal one. Pundits will write that it was an election that either marked the beginning of a Republican revival where Republican candidates came up with a blueprint of policies and messages that appealed to suburban, exurban and independent voters or showed Virginia’s shade of purple is more blue than red and that the election of 2008 was not a blip on the radar due to Barack Obama’s historical candidacy and personality.
In this race, I will be paying close attention to three areas:
1. Issues:
First, since both of these candidates are honorable, stand-up men worthy of becoming the face and leader of the Commonwealth, this election will be a contest over issues and ideas that will be critical for, pardon the semi-pun, Virginia’s tomorrow: stimulating the state’s economy and jobs; transportation, most notably the gridlock in Northern Virginia and ways to better interconnect NoVA with Central Virginia and the so-called “crescent;” Education; Energy, the Environment, and quality of life and issues dealing with a lean but effective government (these issues, I suspect, will be especially important to voters in Virginia’s most prominent exurbs in Loudon, Fairfax and Prince William counties).
At this point in time, McDonnell, who had an uncontested primary to present his detailed and critically regarded plans on a range of issues ranging from education to the environment, to reducing gangs in the exurbs, and transportation, seems to have the current advantage. Deeds has not taken a position on card-check or off-shore drilling. On the most pressing issue-transportation-he seems to have only gone on record to say that he’ll raise gas taxes. As of this writing, his website does not even feature transportation as one of his “featured” issues.
2. National Albatrosses:
The Republican brand is not popular nationally (see Tom Davis’s “dog food” reference), but neither are policies supported by Democrats. Take away President Obama’s historical presidency and personal popularity and the nation is becoming more leery of policies-supported by him and Democrats in Congress-that shift more power to an inefficient and bureaucratic government while encroaching on personal liberties.
Both candidates realize this.
Deeds, in his victory speech, tried to link McDonnell to George W. Bush. Surely in the months ahead, left-leaning groups from outside the Commonwealth will try to link McDonnell to the likes of Pat Robertson, Rush Limbaugh, Dick Cheney, and those who opposed Notre Dame’s giving President Obama an honorary degree.
Conservatives will link Deeds to big labor, national Democrats such as Nancy Pelosi and their array of special interests.
The candidate who can most successfully put the Washington albatross around the other person’s neck will most likely win in November.
3. Q-Ratings/Personalities:
Americans-and Virginians-are always searching for that perfect candidate. To put it simply, that candidate is a combination of Deeds and McDonnell. Americans-and Virginians-want candidates who are competent CEOs who also have the common touch.
If a director needed an actor to play a CEO, McDonnell comes out of central casting. His challenge will be to convince voters that he’s also a person one would want to have a proverbial beer with.
Deeds has the opposite image problem. His biggest challenge will be to convince Virginians that he will be an effective executive or manager, that he will be more than just a feel-good populist story.
My sense is that most Virginians, especially those in between the 40 yard lines on the field of ideology, where this election will be fought, are not fully locked in to either McDonnell’s or Deeds’s camps.
This race has serious implications and will be waged on important ideas and, most likely, sharp contrasts on critical issues that will impact Virginia’s businesses, current and future employees, jobs, roads, schools, and values. More importantly, the race has the potential to showcase the best of Virginia and her independent and practical brand of politics.
When voting in political contests (Bush vs. Gore or Bush vs. Kerry come to mind) many independents often feel as if they have to vote for the lesser of two evils. This contest has the potential to be different. It has the chance to be one of those rare campaigns where voters will vote for the candidate they favor the most instead of the candidate that they are least against.
If this becomes the case, the nation will find that the campaign is worth the hype that it is going to get. And Virginians will be lucky to have a front row seat.
Tony Lee is writing a book about how the GOP can appeal to minorities and Generation X and Y voters while staying true to its conservative principles and values and how Virginia is replacing California as the nation’s new harbinger state. Follow him on twitter: @Thetonylee.
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