Virginia Tomorrow

1. Convincing

It’s the only way to describe Creigh Deeds’ victory  in Tuesday’s Democratic primary. Down by as much as 20 points in some early polls, Deeds’ surge in the last ten days turned into a full scale political avalanche that simply buried his opponents. It’s as if Democrats across Virginia simultaneously decided that Deeds was the candidate most capable of defeating Bob McDonnell.  Obtaining almost 50% of the vote in a three way race, Deeds’ margin of victory surpassed almost anyone’s expectations. More importantly, it ensures that the media will turn immediately to covering his matchup with McDonnell. If he had won by only a point or two, we would have seen two weeks of  “Couldas, Shouldas, and Wouldas” dissecting what the other campaigns could have done to make the outcome different. 

2. Does the GOP Really Hate Daylight Savings Time?

Spring forward to Daylight Savings Time. Fall back to Daylight Standard Time. Is there a mom out there who didn’t teach their kids this lesson? If you listen to Democrats talk about Republicans, you’d think that the GOP must hate Daylight Savings Time, because all they ever want to do is ” to push the clock back.”  The votes had hardly been counted on Tuesday before the Democrats were talking about it again.  We learned from the Deeds campaign that if Bob McDonnell had his way Virginia would be moving the clock back.  Jody Wagner was even more specific, noting that if Bill Bolling and Bob McDonnell were elected, we could be returning to the Gilmore era.

3. Virginia in the Vanguard

As you might expect, Bob McDonnell does not agree that the Democrats are accurately describing his interest. Far from moving backwards, McDonnell suggested that his education plan intends to put “Virginia in the vanguard of the charter school movement.”  Deftly referring to President Obama’s and Education Secretary Duncan’s support for charters, McDonnell maintained that Virginia’s regulations make it extremely difficult to start charter schools because they are dependent on the approval of local school districts which can be resistant to experimentation.  He said that he would change the process to remove the local districts’ monopoly on charter approvals.  The fact that McDonnell mentioned the issue in his video congratulation to Deeds makes this sound like a campaign them to me.

4. How Will the Democrats Respond?

My sense is that Deeds is unlikely to take on Obama directly on the matter I’m guessing that he’ll articulate support for charters, but at the same time clearly indicate that he has other higher priorities for K-12 Education in Virginia. Posts by Barnie Day and Robley Jones on this site in reaction to my initial commentary provide a hint of what the Democrats and organized education groups really think about McDonnell’s proposal. Day argued that the vast majority of Virginians are very satisfied with their public schools, the vast majority of which are performing very well.  Jones maintained that local districts rarely turn to charters because they have better alternatives at their disposal, such as the specialty schools that we see in districts across the state. He also suggested that taking power to approve charter schools away from local districts that are often providing the lion’s share of financial support for the schools raises serious constitutional questions. Where will the public be on this question: with McDonnell/Obama or with Day/Jones?

 5. VITA

Lem Stewart was ousted as head of the Virginia Information Technologies Agency after suggesting that Nothrop Grumman, which has a $2.3 billion ten year contract with the state is not providing adequate documentation for its billing. The removal publicly revived the argument about whether the state is better or worse off with a central agency that provides IT services to the rest of the state agencies. Governor Kaine gave Northrop Grumman a big vote of confidence this weekend, but I doubt that the issue will go away so quickly.  There’s too much money and too many state workers who never liked the arrangement in the first place to think that we won’t  be reading about this for months.

6. Webb in the Forefront

A lot of Republicans believe that Jim Webb’s seat might be winnable if he runs for reelection in 2012. They believe that Webb’s view are left of where many Virginians are on economic and social matters and that his style is more scholarly than charming. If Webb decides to run for re-election, I’m not sure exactly how the voters will view him: will they focus on the issue positions where his stance differs from the majority or will they find him to be candid and authentic, even if they disagree with him?  What does seem clear is that, inside Washington, Webb is far more visible than most first term senators. This week alone Webb received attention for opposing relocation of a nuclear carrier from Virginia to Florida, articulating his views on criminal justice reform, and talking about overall troop levels and deployments. Maybe charm is overrated?

7. Why Can’t the  Democrats Win Attorney General Races?

The Democrats haven’t carried an AG contest since 1989. Is it a question of candidates? Or is something else going on- have the GOP gained a natural advantage since Jim Gilmore redefined the position in 1993 (at least for the purpose of the campaign) as Virginia’s top cop? Steve Shannon believes that his own background as a prosecutor will allow him to break the GOP’s stranglehold on the position. But over the last 20 years, the AG position has become the most important launching pad for GOP gubernatorial candidates. Just ask Bob McDonnell, Jerry Kilgore, Mark Earley and Jim Gilmore.