Virginia Tomorrow

The conventional wisdom (”CW”) has been that Creigh Deeds’s nomination makes it harder for Bob McDonnell to win in November because he is a downstate moderate and cannot be caricaturized in the ways that Terry McAuliffe or Brian Moran surely could have been. Because Deeds can appeal to a broader range of Virginians, in the Mark Warner, Tim Kaine, and Jim Webb tradition, he is the toughest Democratic challenger, so the argument goes.  

 To this conventional wisdom I say, in the words of Lee Corso (I hope he is fully recovering), “not so fast, my friend.”

 Here’s my unconventional take: Deeds’s winning the primary may have been the best thing to happen to McDonnell and Virginia Republicans.

 Let me explain.

 Had McAuliffe or Moran won the nomination, Republicans, thirsting for a revival, may have gone overboard in attacking the Democratic candidate. In essence, they may have made the same mistake Moran made in the primaries-making the race about the opponent instead of about McDonnell. It would have been fun and exciting, but Virginia’s independent voters may have been turned off.

 Spokesmen and ads may have littered the Commonwealth about McAuliffe’s business dealings and Moran’s ties to Big Brother, pun intended. McAuliffe would have been attacked as a carpetbagger who was more Floridian or New Yorker than Virginian. He would have been attacked as a hustler and a double talker more suitable for running a circus than a state. His ties with celebrities would have surely been exploited. For instance, imagine the irresistible nature of a line of attack that would go something like this: “Donald Trump supports Terry McAuliffe. But with McAuliffe in the pockets of big labor, more Virginians are likely to hear the words, “You’re Fired” (so long as Trump has not trademarked it yet). Terry McAuliffe: A Risky Bet.” GOP ad-makers and the rank and file probably had their lines of attacks ready and their powder surely was not going to remain dry.

 Had this occurred, McAuliffe could have framed his candidacy the way his old boss, Hillary Clinton, did against Rick Lazio when Clinton first ran for Senate: as a victim being bullied and savaged by Republicans thirsty for victory, willing to win at all costs. In baseball terms, he could have used all of the heat and power supplied by the proverbial hurler throwing a 100mph fastball and hit it out of the ballpark.

 With Deeds on the top of the ticket, the election will be less circus-like and more focused on meat and potatoes issues unless Democrats attempt to spuriously tie McDonnell to figures like George W. Bush. This helps McDonnell.

 Granted, he had an uncontested primary to hone and sharpen his general election campaign, but nobody can deny that McDonnell is developing a nice portfolio of forward-looking policies on issues affecting the Commonwealth-education, energy (gas prices are steadily rising and McDonnell’s early embrace of safe offshore drilling may be rewarded), transportation, small business, taxes and practical values (which matter in the swing-exurbs).

 In short, Deeds vs. McDonnell seems to be an election that will be decided more on policies rather than personalities. In the early stages, McDonnell seems to have the edge and can most aptly be labeled as the man with the plan.

 Tony Lee is writing a book about how the GOP can appeal to minorities and Generation X and Y voters while staying true to its conservative principles and values and how Virginia is replacing California as the nation’s new harbinger state. Follow him on twitter: @Thetonylee.