Virginia Tomorrow

Bob McDonnell announced the formation of Virginians for McDonnell yesterday, self-described as a “broad group of Democrats, Independents and Republicans” who will be supporting the GOP candidate.

I know and respect many of the individuals in the group.

Wyatt Durrette, former GOP candidate for Governor, has been a frequent contributor to Virginia Tomorrow, sometimes highly critical of his own party.  Judy Ford Wason was Director of Virginians for Warner in 2001 and has been centrally involved in a number of efforts to enhance state investment in higher education. Heywood Fralin is completing his term as UVA Rector and has been a model of the businessman/public servant for years. Alex McMurtrie, a fellow Notre Dame alum of McDonnell,  was a Democratic member of the legislature. And Jane Woods is a Republican who served as Mark Warner’s Secretary of Health and Human Resources.

The initial spin battle broke down along predictable lines. The McDonnell camp saw evidence of the candidate’s Reaganesque qualities- a strong conservative whose ideas appealed to some Democrats as well.  The Democrats immediately responding by labeling the announcement part of McDonnell’s makeover effort, papering over his opposition to Warner-Kaine policies with a new veneer of moderation.

What’s the real bottom line?

There is some genuine good news for McDonnell here.

I think the group indicates that a number of moderate, business-leaning Republicans are not very likely to abandon him this fall (it’s too early to say whether populist, conservative, pro-gun rural, Republican leaners will be another story).

This is, in part, testimony to the outreach that McDonnell has made over the last few years. 

It is also, I think, related to developments in the larger political culture, especially the rising concern in the business community about the priorities of the Obama administration and the Pelosi-Reid Congress.

Opposition to card check and accepting stimulus dollars for the expansion of unemployment insurance benefits is making business-oriented Republicans far less likely to support Democrats.

 But.

Virginians For McDonnell does not have a Knock Your Socks Off Democrat.

Or even a Democrat with the kind of recent involvement in party affairs whose defection would make you sit up and take notice.

The “Virginians For” tactic works best when it actually sends a signal about who’s against you.

In 2001, Virginians for Warner had an impact because it was widely interpreted as Republicans Against Earley.

But, at least on first blush, Virginians for McDonnell is not Democrats Against Deeds.

The takeaway is Moderate Republicans Comfortable with McDonnell.

Given the GOP’s travails in recent statewide races, this can be a very helpful message as the party tries to reverse its declining fortunes in suburbia and exurbia.

But Democrats can win in Virginia today without Republicans, so long as they mobilize their own base and run reasonably well with independents.

It’s also premature to label McDonnell’s cross-over appeal “Reaganesque.”

Reagan Democrats came over to the GOP as a result of a set of clearly articulated policy stances-  a BIG across the board tax cut, a restoration of American power around the world, and opposition to what was described as excessively permissive liberal social policies.

In Virginia, the last major stampedes over to the Republicans (if we exclude the 2001 House results manufactured  by Vance Wilkins’ redistricting ledgerdermain) came in 1993 when George Allen campaigned on No Parole and in 1997  with Jim Gilmore’s No Car Tax pledge.  (It’s hard to remember that the GOP was once proud to be The Party of No. )

Norm Leahy at Tertium Quids has been “lobbying” the McDonnell campaign to develop a “Big Idea” as a Reagan-like centerpiece of the race- but I don’t think that the campaign is there yet.

Finally, I’m not certain that a “Virginians For” group will have as much an impact against Deeds as it might have if Moran or McAuliffe had been the party’s standard bearer.

Yes, there is going to be an intense and bitter fight for the middle as the Democrats label McDonnell Pat Robertson’s “Poster Boy.”

I have no doubt that Mark Warner’s two Cabinet Secretaries who joined “Virginians For”  will be crucial to McDonnell’s effort to deflect the attacks.

And I assume that McDonnell, who Larry Sabato has cannily labeled “Mr. Surburbia,” will not run anywhere near as poorly as recent GOP statewide candidates in NOVA and other major metropolitican areas.

But despite the almost daily efforts of GOP Chair Pat Mullins, it will be difficult to depict Deeds as a flaming liberal out of touch with the basic values of Virginians. We’ll surely soon see a Virginians for Deeds group that will assist him in burnishing his moderate credentials.

So while McDonnell is likely to make inroads  in the middle, Deeds is likely to do better here than McAuliffe or Moran may have.

In fact, by the end of the campaign Deeds’ challenge may be somewhat different.

Will he be able to excite, energize and mobilize the Democratic base as Barack Obama did last year and other Democrats such as Jim Webb and Tim Kaine did previously?

Will the Democrats be able to recapture the magic of 2008 or will this year’s turnout resemble the special elections in NOVA of the last six months where a complacent Democratic Party has performed poorly time after time?