Virginia Tomorrow

1. McDonnell Doesn’t Take the Pledge

Not to raise taxes. Asked by the Washington Times whether he would take a no-tax pledge, the GOP candidate for Governor demurred, citing the proliferation of groups with pledges that come knocking at a candidate’s door these days. Amazed by McDonnell’s response the W. Times sent a videographer out to get his comments on tape before he left the building and followed up with a snarky, scathing editorial.  The incident demonstrated the delicacy of the balancing act that the McDonnell is performing: striving simultaneously to stake out the political middle and to energize conservatives.

2. McDonnell and Reagan

The McDonnell campaign observes that it is striving to achieve in Virginia what Ronald Reagan did nationally in the 1980’s. My sense is that Reagan was able to accomplish this because he articulated clear  conservative positions about taxes, foreign policy and the direction of American culture that had sufficient crossover appeal.  He also had convenient targets with the Carter economy and the Iranian taking of American hostages. McDonnell’s effort to emulate Reagan’s achievements may be one of the major challenges of the campaign. What are the “big ideas” that’ll move Virginians away from the Democratic Party and who are the “targets” of McDonnell’s issue contrasts?

3. I’m a Travelin’ Man

The Republican Party of Virginia says that Tim Kaine should be singing that old Ricky Nelson song, given the extent of time he’s spending out of state on Democratic National Committee business.  The Washington Post has also called attention to the matter, citing the difficulty the newspaper has had in obtaining notification of the Governor’s out-of-town travels. While Kaine’s public approval rating remain relatively high, the GOP will be working very hard to bring it down a notch during the next few months. In 2005, Kaine was very successful running as Mark Warner’s younger brother. Republicans want to make sure that Deeds can’t do the same this fall.

4. History Rocks !

At least in the state of Virginia. A proposal to remove the third grade SOL history test was withdrawn after a bipartisan clamor arose against it. Kirk Cox, members of the Legislative Black Caucus, Native American leaders, and Colonial Williamsburg administrators all objected, pointing to the crucial importance of history to our cultural and social identities.  I’ve never seen such an outpouring of public affection for an exam.  Bravo!

5. The Free Ride is Over

For many incumbents in the Virgina House of Delegates this fall. The Virginia Public Access Project reported that there will be opposition in 68 out of the 100 seats up for election, with 58 of the races having major party competition.  While this still falls far short of ideal, it is a whole lot better than in 2007 when two thirds of the incumbents faced no or token opposition.  The GOP is fielding an opponent in 15 of the 17 Fairfax County seats and the Dems are contesting a number of seats where the Republican incumbent has not faced an opponent in years. With redistricting coming after next year’s census, I’m sure that the parties want to contest every possible seat. But I’m pleased with anything that produces more competition. There’s still nothing like an election to encourage political accountability.

6. After the Stimulus?

What’s next for the state budget? The litany of bad news about state revenues continued again this week as the Governor announced that he was adding another $75 million to this year’s projected shortfall, bring the the total to $300 million. The good news was that the Governor said it could be managed through a combination of cost cutting measures already in place and federal stimulus dollars. Later in the week, Christopher Newport University announced that it was able to temper its budget problems through cost cutting and the receipt of federal stimulus funds. What’s going to happen when the stimulus dollars run out? And will the candidates in the statewide races be focusing on this?

7. Forget the Summertime Polls

About the Governor’s race. They have almost no predictive value. Ask Doug Wilder, George Allen, Jim Gilmore and Tim Kaine how accurately the polls forecasted what happened in their races. At the moment, the general public is paying minimal attention to the race even if political insiders are paying attention to nothing else. But conveying legitimacy on meaningless polls is a tough habit to kick for political junkies everywhere. I’m certain that I’ll be as guilty as everyone else and will find some reason to talk about the polls prior to Labor Day- unless,  of course, anyone knows of a Poll Addiction Therapy that actually works.