Bob McDonnell punted on whether he would sign a “no taxes pledge” last week and the Washington Times‘ editorial board slammed him for his equivocation. While fiscal conservatives fretted about his refusal to sign the tax pledge, it is his response that is more disconcerting for it threatens to devalue the most important piece of political capital a candidate can have, especially among independent and exurban voters: authenticity.
McDonnell wobbled and even inexplicably revealed that his tax plan was “not ready for primetime.” Such answers threaten to add to a narrative that can undermine his authenticity. This must be reversed before a pattern develops.
Here is how McDonnell could have forcefully and thoughtfully responded to the Washington Times and appealed to conservatives and independents at the same time: “I’m not taking the pledge because the only oath I will take is to Virginians, the only pledge I’ll take is to do what’s best for all Virginians, which includes NOT raising taxes. But my allegiance lies with the people of Virginia, not to an editorial board, with all due respect to the Washington Times.”
In what may be a low-turnout election, McDonnell’s challenge will be to energize his conservative base while also attracting independent swing voters. Championing conservative causes, beliefs, and values and appealing to independents is not necessarily mutually exclusive so long as independents view McDonnell as genuine.
A recent Gallup poll should give McDonnell some comfort that one can remain conservative and still appeal to independents. That poll found a plurality of Americans identifies themselves as conservatives and even about a quarter of Democrats view themselves as conservatives as well. It is probably safe to assume that more Virginians probably would identity themselves as “conservative” than those that did in the national Gallup poll. Because Virginia is becoming a representative sample of what the nation thinks, it is worth examining some past national Republican candidates and how their strategies failed or succeeded based on whether voters viewed their conservatism as authentic and apply those lessons to this race.
Ronald Reagan attracted his Reagan Revolutionaries or Reagan Democrats, many of whom used to be Bobby Kennedy supporters, because no one doubted what Reagan stood for, and he was forceful and authentic in advocating his beliefs. Let’s be real, Bob McDonnell is no Ronald Reagan yet (it is unfair to compare anyone to Reagan) and he has a ways to go to even be mentioned in the same sentence as him, but McDonnell needs to start learning from The Gipper’s playbook. Perhaps he should start by watching Reagan’s 1976 convention speech in Kansas City, which is made more remarkable because the speech was an impromptu, off-the-cuff affair that came straight from the heart when Gerald Ford called him up to the podium because Ford thought he could embarrass The Great Communicator. That speech was a display of authenticity. There was no equivocation there. That is how Reagan won two terms.
When George “41″ Bush ran for Reagan’s conservative third term, he won. H.W. Bush lost when independents did not see him as an authentic conservative and defected to Ross Perot. When George “43″ Bush ran as a compassionate but no less authentic conservative, he won in 2000 (regardless of what one thinks of the outcome, the fact that “43″ over performed in that election cannot be disputed) and 2004. Election 2008 was the worst of both worlds for Republicans and conservatives: Barack Obama smartly made John McCain run for a W. Bush’s “un-conservative” third term. In addition, McCain never had the trust of conservatives because he never seemed comfortable ardently championing conservative causes. It made McCain seem inauthentic. It goes without saying that McCain lost.
The lesson: the candidate who comes across as the most “real” wins the election.
What McDonnell should take from these past elections is that it may be better to optimistically market his authentic conservative values, especially on fiscal issues, as the best way to move Virginia forward than to be caught in what Mike Huckabee recently called the “mushy middle” where Democrats choose the Democrat over Democrat-Lite, Independents get turned off by what they may view as spineless political opportunism, and true conservative stay home in disgust. That is the nightmare scenario McDonnell may face if this pattern of equivocation continues.
Earlier in the campaign, McDonnell was asked by a reporter why his commercials did not identify him as a Republican. He punted and answered along the lines of “I’ll let you know” later.
Equivocation. Again.
He could have answered forcefully along the lines of: “I don’t plan to govern for Republicans or for Democrats. I am going to be a governor for all Virginians if I am elected Governor. The chattering class and Democrats need to stop putting people into boxes. Virginians vote for the best person, not the best party.”
Campaigns are now conducted in a 24-hour media cycle where viral videos and late-night comedy shows can tip the balance of an election. Fully aware of this, the media is always vigilant, on the look-out for something they can prod and analyze and even distort to make the race exciting and circus-like. P.T. Barnum would be proud.
And in this election, when the national media swoops in, they will be itching to find a way to draw attention and eyeballs to this race and their coverage of it. Virginia’s political insiders know that McDonnell’s past equivocation, on an issue that has been rendered moot by the Lawrence decision in the Supreme Court, can give the media a chance to turn this race into a freak show. McDonnell’s job is to not give the media an excuse to turn this election into a circus the way the media did in the 2006 senate race between Jim Webb and George Allen. Doing so would cloud the important policies he is putting forth to move Virginia forward. And that would be a shame.
On energy, McDonnell proposes to safely drill offshore. This will allow Virginians to take control of their energy future while also providing her with the revenue to fund sorely needed transportation projects to unclog Virginia’s transportation arteries.
On education, McDonnell is on the right side of history when it comes to getting the conversation started on charter schools. With all due respect to those who have posted on this blog, those in Generations X and Y enthusiastically favor charter schools. As do many minorities and those who come from and live in less affluent communities.
The white hot national spotlight will shine brightly on this race soon. When the national klieg lights come on, one viral story can “K.O.” a candidate, even in local or statewide elections. That is the nature of the beast in the 21st century. McDonnell better get ready-and be prepared-for primetime. The lights are warming up and will be white hot very soon. And in that environment, “unforced” errors will be penalized more than a wayward tee shot into the deep rough is at the U.S. Open.
Tony Lee is writing a book about how the GOP can appeal to minorities and Generation X and Y voters while staying true to its conservative principles and values and how Virginia is replacing California as the nation’s new harbinger state. He can be reached at thetonyjlee@gmail.com; follow him on twitter: @Thetonylee
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