Virginia Tomorrow

This is what has happened over the last three weeks.

The GOP slammed Governor Kaine for not disclosing all of his out-of-state travel undertaken during his second shift as Chair of the Democratic National Committee.

Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling writes an op-ed in The Washington Times predicting that the next Governor will “likely inherit a financial mess.”  He remarks that “over the past three years, Democratic Governor Tim Kaine has attempted to balance the state budget through overly optimistic revenue projections, the use of one-time money to pay for ongoing programs, an excessive use of state debt, federal bailout dollars and raids on the rainy day fund.”

Governor Kaine and Speaker Howell exchanged op-ed attacks in The Washington Post on whether the House Republicans or the Governor is primarily to blame for not making more progress on transportation during the last four years.

Coincidence?

Virgnia Republicans  just getting a few concerns about the Governor off their chests?

Hardly.

The GOP is, I believe, sending an important signal how it views the Governor’s relative standing and how it intends to frame the 2009 statewide races.

In the last few days, I’ve been in contact with Republicans close to the statewide campaigns and this is what they’re saying.

First, they contend that Tim Kaine is no Mark Warner, at least in terms of his job approval numbers. The GOP internals appear to have Kaine’s approval ratings in the mid 50’s, modestly positive figures but not as high as Mark Warner’s in 2005.

Second, the GOP tends to believe that the requirements of Kaine’s position as head of the DNC provides them with a genuine opening in the Virginia context.

We have already seen them try to capitalize on Kaine’s out-of-state travels.

More importantly, Republicans assume that Kaine has little flexibility on issues- his role essentially requires him to defend whatever policies emerge from the White House and the Democratic-controlled Congress over the next four months. 

Health care reform. Overdue.

Cap and trade. Farsighted energy policy.

Card check. Leveling the playing field for workers.

Climate Change. Let’s act quickly and decisively.

And whatever Nancy Pelosi comes up with…

Regardless of how warmly these proposals are likely to be received in Virginia.

And the GOP intends to ask Deeds (over and over again) what he thinks about the policies that Kaine has no choice but to defend.

Finally, Republicans believe that the state budget situation and the continung economic uncertainty will make it more difficult for democrats to continue to claim the mantle of fiscal responsibility.

The LG race is shaping up as a direct test of this proposition.

Bolling’s broadside against Kaine’s fiscal practices is obviously a carom shot at the Democratic LG nominee Jody Wagner who served as Warner’s State Treasurer and Kaine’s Secretary of Finance.  

Wagner’s intends to use this experience as a badge of honor. Bolling wants the public to view it as a disqualifying factor.

The bottom line is this.

Republicans believe Deeds won’t be able to waltz to victory in November simply by reminding voters that he is first cousin to the Warner-Kaine political family.

The GOP thinks the state’s continuing fiscal uncertainty and Kaine’s obligation to defend whatever Washington comes up with make 2009 a very different environment than 2005.

I think that we’ll know by September whether these assumptions are valid or whether the GOP is compelled to change course.

But there isn’t much doubt that the GOP presently intends to make Tim Kaine a far bigger target than Mark Warner was in 2005.

The last three weeks are just the prologue.