Virginia Tomorrow

1. Media Take Over What the GOP Started

A number of media outlets kept up the pressure on Governor Kaine to release his out-of-state travel schedule as Chair of the Democratic National Committee. It included an editorial by The Washington Post that favorably referenced the work that Post reporter Anita Kumar has done on the issue. Kumar is unlikely to back off. And despite the woes of the newspaper business, The Post  is looking pretty influential these days after its editorial support was a key catalyst in Deed’s primary victory. It will be fascinating to see whether the Governor’s office digs its heels in on this issue when it is receiving scant public support, from either the media or, for that matter, from Creigh Deeds.

2. McDonnell Looks to Washington

For issues in the gubernatorial campaign. It became evident this week that the GOP hopes to exploit Kaine’s position as DNC Chair to their advantage. Here’s what’s happening.  The GOP believes that Kaine is essentially obligated to support whatever legislation emerges from the Democratic majority in Congress and really cannot even criticize any legislation that some segment of the party might propose. The McDonnell campaign intends to publicize issues such as cap and trade and card check,  implying that Virginia Democrats, including Creigh Deeds,  are not very different from Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid.

3. King David and the Point Guard

McDonnell’s nationalization of the election carries one major risk: it brings into play the tarnished brand of the national GOP with moderate voters. Within the past 10 days, GOP governors have staged two of the more remarkable political entertainments of recent times. Mark Sanford, former Chair of the Republican Governor’s Association, held a press conference, admitting that he had not been hiking the Appalachian Trail, but had been in Argentina, crying over his soulmate. He then told his Cabinet that he felt like King David. On Friday, Sarah Palin decided to say “thanks but no thanks” to the Alaska Governorship, comparing herself to a point guard who could see the entire court and knew when it was time to “give up the ball.” If this is the landscape on which the gubernatorial election is contended, Democrats may not be that worried.

4. State Finances Move to Center Stage

Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling published an op-ed in The Washington Times, blasting the Kaine Administration’s handling of the state budget. The fact that Jody Wagner, Kaine’s first Secretary of Finance, is Bolling’s opponent could possibly have had something to do with the content and perspective of the op-ed. Speaking more seriously, the Democrats have owned the issue of fiscal responsibility for almost the entire decade and McDonnell and Bolling would like to reclaim it. But whether they’ll be able to do this while Virginia is still getting high marks from independent oberservs as a well-managed state that is friendly to business is both an open question and one that will have an impact on the outcome of the elections.

5. “The Great Governor of New Jersey”

That’s how Vice-President Joe Biden introduced Tim Kaine last weekend. Our Governor has obviously been working hard (and has spent a little time out-of-state lately). But one still might think that the VEEP would remember from where the principal competitor for his current position hailed.

6. Fairfax’s Identity

County Administrator Anthony Griffin raised the issue this week of whether Virginia’s largest jurisdiction should offically become a city, acknowledging  Fairfax’s increasingly urbanized identity.  While some of the legal disadvantages under which cities labor in Virginia might make Griffin’s suggestion impractical or difficult to implement, his sense that Fairfax has become the state’s principal city is not far from reality. In any case, Griffin has generated a more interesting and potentially fruitful dialogue than the Fairfax supervisor of a few years back who recommended that the County secede from Virginia and re-form as its own state.

7. No Easy Target

Will Tom Perriello be. The GOP is running ads against Perriello and other potentially vulnerable first-term members of Congress. Republicans believe that the extraordinary turnout for Obama elected Perriello and that, in a more normal year such as 2010, The GOP will stand a much better chance of capturing the seat. The Republican demographic analysis of the district seems reasonable to me. But in politics demography is not always destiny. Perriello’s hard work, visibility, and constituent service in the district shows that he is not taking a potential challenge or a rematch with Virgil Goode lightly- he’ll be a tough competitor, even with some less favorable turnout numbers.