On a weekend that was tailor-made for burying unpleasant news (the talking heads suggested that Tim Kaine release his records and Mark Sanford resign this weekend, if that is what they wanted to do), Sarah Palin stunned the political world by announcing that she would not seek re-election and step down at the end of the month.
To the media, Palin is a one person reality show that they cannot keep off the air.
She speaks, they cover it. Someone says something about her, both sides go crazy.
She may be the only person in America who could single-handedly elbow Michael Jackson off the airwaves.
As Virginians are forced to tune in to “Days of Our Palin,” here are some lessons and questions from “The Palin Show” that are relevant to Virginia’s politics.
1. Lieutenant Governors: In recent years, from New Jersey to New York to Alaska to Illinois to possibly South Carolina, the lieutenant governor has had to step in due to scandal or unforeseen circumstances. In other states, like Arizona and Kansas, the LG has had to step in because the Governors received Presidential appointments. Due to these events, will Virginia’s voters put as much of a premium on the Bill Bolling vs. Jody Wagner race this year as they will on the McDonnell vs. Deeds contest? Perhaps they should.
2. National Media: When the national media decides something is a story, the story and the terrain on which it is covered become a whole new ballgame. There is no doubt that national media executives will anoint the McDonnell versus Deeds race as “national” story, a battle between Democrat and Republican proxies in an off- year election. This story will dominate the news cycle after Labor Day unless Sarah Palin does something unpredictable again.
While I am not sure which gubernatorial candidate or party benefits more from the national spotlight, both campaigns better gear up for the onslaught that is coming Virginia’s way. They could start by reading Barnie Day’s excellent column on political messaging that was published on this blog, www.Virginiatomorrow.com.
3. Travel-Gate: Among the myriad of reasons she listed off as to why she was stepping down was the fact that Palin did not want to be a lame duck governor who traveled on the state’s dime. Will the media continue to pester Governor Kaine about his travel records and make it a big issue? Will they ask him why he is not stepping down like Palin?
4. Lame Duck Governors: Is Virginia’s one-term system a healthy model? According to Sarah Palin, a lame duck governor cannot serve a state well. What does that say about Virginia’s model? Many have discussed giving Virginia’s chief executive a chance to serve a second term. Does the current system serve the people better so long as the Governor is not moonlighting (Gilmore and Kaine) or is busy lining up favors for his next political act? Or is there merit to the belief that a Governor who would be up for re-election would be more inclined to keep his campaign promises, especially if the candidate promises or signs a pledge to not raise taxes? Or would a potential second term make the Governor beholden to donors and special interests and force the Governor to make purely political decisions in his first term instead of doing what’s best for Virginia as a whole? I’m sure we’ll hear a lot more about these issues in the years to come.
5. The Jeff Frederick Factor: As an outsider, Jeff Frederick had to be perfect. Anyone who comes from outside the system must not have any peccadilloes or give the establishment an excuse to can him. There is a double standard. It’s unfair, but it’s reality. Frederick gave his enemies plenty of reasons to discard him. He made a lot of unforced and undisciplined errors. Contrast Frederick with Barack Obama. Obama also was an outsider. Yet, Obama never gave anyone a superficial reason that they could use as an excuse to justifiably vote against him or oust him. This is a lesson Sarah Palin and other outsiders must learn. Little things, like keeping fundraising commitments or leaving no doubts as to whether one is living “high on the hog,” matter.
6. Deeds vs. McDonnell: Palin has all the superficial skills that connect her with the average voters. Her challenge, if she is interested in running for President, will be to convince voters that she can be a competent manager and CEO. In Virginia’s gubernatorial election, Deeds faces a similar challenge: he must convince Virginians that a state Senator from rural Bath County has what it takes to competently manage Virginia’s economy and be its chief steward.
McDonnell, on the other hand, must let more of his human side show. Often, he seems too much like a manager and comes across as a bit stiff. If this is not in McDonnell’s nature, the campaign would be better off playing to his managerial strengths and not risk making him come across as a phony, which happened to Al Gore when his staff tried to make him seem less “wooden.” In a race that will be fought and run on the airwaves in large parts of the state, these superficial impressions that voters have of these candidates is worth watching, as such personality characteristics affect the views of voters who may not pay attention to politics on a daily basis.
7. NoVA versus RoVA: If Sarah Palin were a Virginian, it goes without saying that she would thrive in downstate RoVa and would have her challenges in NoVA. This not only mirrors the problems facing current GOP candidates, but it also resembles the challenges that both gubernatorial candidates face in this year’s election. Both McDonnell and Deeds must over-perform in Virginia’s northern suburbs this year if they want to get to Richmond.
8. Handlers and Consultants: “Days of our Palin” has shown why consultants and seasoned experts are needed and, at the same time, why so many people also hate them and think professional handlers and consultants represent everything that is wrong with modern American politics. The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle.
Because Virginia has elections every year, many critics have accused Virginia of being run by powerful and semi-incestuous groups of consultants on both sides of the political aisle.
Nobody should be surprised by the leaks coming from within the McCain campaign. It has been standard fare as politics has become perhaps the only recession-proof industry in America. McCain’s advisors and leakers, who were patting themselves on the back when McCain briefly took the lead over Obama after Palin’s Republican National Convention speech, now want to have it both ways. They want to blame Palin or “factors beyond their control” and not their inept management of a campaign that was 100% tactics and 0% strategy for their loss. At the same time, they do not want to be persona non gratas among the nearly three quarters of Republicans who view Palin in a favorable light. And so they must walk the political two-step, with the sole aim of preserving their reputations and prospects for future employment. To these folks, politics is simply a money making business instead of a noble profession where principles matter more than profit. This mercenary type behavior by these political consultants is cowardly, and I hope there is less of it in politics, both in Virginia and at the national level.
Tony Lee is writing books about how the GOP can appeal to minorities and Generation X and Y voters while staying true to its conservative principles and values, how politics mirrors professional wrestling, and why Sarah Palin polarizes America. He also opines on how Virginia is replacing California as the nation’s new harbinger state. Follow him on twitter: @Thetonylee. E-mail him at: thetonyjlee@gmail.com
Obama never gave anyone a superficial reason not to vote for him? are you kidding? did you read his books? listen to his speeches? take note of his friends & associates?
Let me clarify by what I meant by that, and make a broader point. Minorities and conservatives have a huge thing in common in that the elite mainstream media who cover them both typecast them. As the first legitimate African-American candidate, Obama never gave the MSM a reason to associate him with common stereotypes they often have towards Blacks and black candidates, notwithstanding Jeremiah Wright, which the McCain campaign took off the table.
Likewise, cultural conservatives and poor white candidates must also overcome the image, at least superficially, of being “not polished.” It’s a double standard. It’s not fair. But it is what it is. Yes, during the campaign, Palin didn’t do anything to undercut McCain like Biden did to Obama (saying he would be tested, etc). But that fact is often not mentioned because cultural conservatives don’t have home field advantage with the mainstream image makers. As a woman conservative and pro-life candidate and a cultural conservative, she has a higher bar to jump over and less margin for error. Is it fair? no. Is it reality? yes. It’s just the nature of the beast.
Obama is as smooth as silk. The closest he came to a major gaffe on the campaign trail was his use of the term “redistribute”. This spawned Joe the Plumber and the short lived “Obama the re-distributor” debate for about a week and a half. Other than that, the man was almost rhetorically perfect.
No other major American politician speaks with the apparent ease of Obama. No Republican since Ronald Reagan has been able to stand on stage and sell his story to the audience as well as Obama sells his story to the American people.
And that’s the problem…
The Republicans have grown unbelievably inarticulate while the liberalized spirit of the Great Communicatior lives on in the form of our current President. Sarah Palin is a side-show. She is noteworthy only because no other Republican is worthy of note. Today’s Republican Party has no center of gravity, no clear articulation of values, no discernible leader. So, instead, the media covers the jesters who would normally be on the far fringe of a real political party. It’s Sarah “oh look, there’s Russia” Palin, Rush “the human caricature” Limbaugh and Mark “please wait for me Argentina” Sanford. What else would you expect? There is no center to the Republican Party. It’s just a swirling mass of oddballs, jim-cracks and gew-gaws.
And that’s the problem …
Obama is getting a “free pass” on almost every issue. The reliably liberal press lacks both incentive and alternative. Who speaks for the Republican Party? Who provides the articulate ying to Obama’s yang?
Nobody.
The presence of Sarah Palin is supremely irrelevant. The vacuum of leadership within the Republican Party is supremely relevant.
Things are a bit different in Virginia. The difference between the Republicans nationally and the Republicans in Virginia can be summed up in two words - Bob McDonnell. McDonnell is the equal of any state Democrat. In fact, if you eliminate Mark Warner - Virginia’s Democrats have little to show for themselves. Kaine is (correctly) perceived to have done essentially nothing while governor. The Dems can play the blame game but Kaine’s 15 minutes of fame are over. Webb is everybody’s favorite uncle. Tough guy, war hero, writer, conversationalist, irrelevant. He’ll star in Midnight at the Museum III replacing Teddy Roosevelt as the person everybody recognizes but nobody remembers why they recognize him. Unfortunately, Virginia’s Republicans have little to show for themselves other than Bob McDonnell. Warner can be the attack dog while Deeds stays above the fray. The RPV has no antidote.
Warner is the Republicans’ problem.
Mark Warner’s shameless recasting of history and endless self-promotion have worked. He has gone from greedy paper pusher to technology entrepreneur. From tax hiking liberal to fiscal conservative. From a pandering machine politician to the education governor. He has ridden George Allen’s inexplicable antics and Jim Gilmore’s lack of passion into the #1 spot in Virginia politics. Warner will be a factor in the upcoming gubernatorial election. He will campaign for Deeds and against McDonnell. He will continue to re-write history for his political benefit. He may very well give Deeds the margin of victory he needs in NoVA to get to Richmond.
The RPV should be trying to neutralize the position of Mark Warner rather than arguing about Jeff Frederick. McDonnell can easily out-campaign Deeds (one on one). But who will neutralize the fictionalized glory of Mark Warner? In these difficult times the Dems will trumpet the “good old days” of the Warner Administration. As usual, it will be Mark Warner himself tooting his own horn with most hot air.
The RPV needs a pit bull but doesn’t have one. That’s going to allow Creigh Deeds to serve Mark Warner’s second term as governor.
And that’s the problem …
“7. NoVA versus RoVA: If Sarah Palin were a Virginian, it goes without saying that she would thrive in downstate.”
Gosh, to me she doesn’t seem much like Rick Boucher, Tom Perriello or Glenn Nye.
Nor does she seem to have the admirable qualities of Owen Pickett, Jim Olin, L.F. Payne or the late Norman Sisisky (than whom there were not many better).
‘course, I’m just an old country lawyer and not really sure what RoVa means. Is it the feminine of Rove?
“RoVa”. the feminine of Rove?
that is a great comment!
i would hope that NO One would vote yes to the Cap ‘n Trade if their district included some coal country (Rich Boucher). Obama himself said his environmental plan would “bankrupt” the coal industry.
Haha–funny comment on Rove and RoVa.
Agreed with cap and trade. Cap and Trade, besides destroying jobs and raising energy prices, also opens up the energy market to Enron-type manipulation. Nobody is talking about that. It also transfers wealth via carbon credits to other nations that aren’t even subjected to the same rules.
What I find funny is nobody asks what is going to power all these electric cars that Democrats want to build? … um, COAL!!!
Her speech was mesmerizing. You wanted to look away but couldn’t, because there was no telling what was coming out of her mouth next. She’s a total loose cannon. Being on her staff must cause ulcers.