Virginia Tomorrow

A Public Policy Polling Survey was released this week showing Bob McDonnell, Bill Bolling and Ken Cuccinelli all ahead of their Democratic opponents and McDonnell leading Deeds among independents by 54% to 33%.

As I have said on numerous occasions, I am very skeptical of the extent to which early polls forecast November results.

Early poll leaders (Terry, Kilgore, Senator Allen) often lose while those who hold large margins (Wilder) sometimes win by a whisker and candidates apparently locked in close races (Gilmore) triumph in landslides.

From what I gather, the internal polls of the parties show the gubernatorial race right tighter than the margins in the Public Policy Polling release.

But the real news in the survey is the margin that McDonnell has with Independent voters. Even if these numbers are inflated, they seem to show that the political environment in the Commonwealth has changed in significant ways since last November when Barack Obama simultaneously mobilized Democrats and appealed to Independents.

I sense that the context has evolved in three ways.

1. Public opinion about President Obama and his policies has become less positive. While Obama often gets high marks for his willingness to act, support for certain Obama administration policies has been reduced.

2. Tim Kaine’s dual role as Governor and Chair of the DNC  has obligated him to be a spokesperson for Democratic policies at the national level that may not always be very popular in Virginia. The drumbeat first from the GOP and now from the media about Kaine’s DNC travels contiues to draw attention to the Governor’s role as the spokesperson for the national Democrats.

3. The persistence of  extraordinarily challenging economic conditions for state and local government and for households could have dramatic impact on voters’ political behavior. Word this week from the state, from university presidents and from leaders of many local governments told us to expect more bad news before we see a turnaround.

Since most voters have yet to pay serious attention to the race, Democrats will have ample time and opportunity to make their case to Independents.

But the survey should be a wake-up call to any Democrat who thinks that you can get elected in 2009 by simply reminding voters how good things were under Mark Warner and Tim Kaine.

In these economic conditions, it’s hard to believe that “Thanks for the Memories” will be the winning strategy in November.