Bob McDonnell and Creigh Deeds debated last weekend in front of the Virginia Bar Association. While it is safe to assume that most people in Virginia did not pay close attention to the debate and voters are probably more concerned about the economy than they are in the Governor’s race at this point in time (though that will change come Labor Day), the debate allowed those who saw it a chance to see the formation of some themes and issues that will form.
To use a professional wrestling analogy, the debate reminded me of the days when wrestlers would fine tune their acts in smaller markets before their acts went “primetime.” Surely, McDonnell and Deeds will have to adapt to issues-foreseen and unforeseen-in the coming months, but they showed enough of their cards for observers to make some reasoned assessments. Here are mine:
1) Bob is boring like Barack: On the stump, Obama is in his own weight class. But if you close your eyes and listen to McDonnell debate and speak, he sounds like the Obama who has bored the nation with his press conferences and policy discussions. The “boring” Obama probably did more to convince independent voters that he did not belong to the Jesse Jackson and Reverend Wright wings of the Democratic Party and was able to become the country’s CEO.
Likewise, the more boring and corporate McDonnell seems, the harder it is for Democrats to frame him as representing the Pat Robertson or Jerry Falwell wings of the Republican Party.
2) Humor: One disadvantage of seeming like a suburban manager, though, is that it may make McDonnell come off as a cold bureaucrat or a cold executive in the boardroom who is not empathetic and does not understand the lives of working class voters. During the debate, McDonnell jokingly asked Creigh why he chose to be called Creigh when his parents named him Bob (Robert). It was a hilarious and witty moment, and such lighthearted moments serve to soften up his “corporate” image. It’s something the McDonnell campaign needs a little bit more of in the months ahead.
3) NoVa vs. RoVa: Deeds attempted to frame McDonnell as someone who is out of touch with the more rural parts of Virginia when he attacked McDonnell for a quip McDonnell made about how raising grocery taxes may not affect those in Southwest Virginia because those Virginians hunt their own food. It left one to wonder if there are enough votes in the more rural parts of Virginia to push Deeds over the top should he not do as well as Mark Warner or Tim Kaine in vote-heavy regions of Northern Virginia.
4) Bob is the man with the plan: McDonnell most effectively attacked Deeds by highlighting that Deeds does not have a concrete transportation plan. McDonnell referred people to Deeds’s own website to highlight his lack of a transportation plan. Whatever one thinks about the finer details of McDonnell’s plan, one cannot deny that he has put forth a substantive and comprehensive set of ideas that can be used as a starting point to solve one of the most pressing issues facing the Commonwealth. Deeds’s lack of a plan may hurt him for another reason. Not having a plan may make voters wonder if Deeds would be a governor who just “wings it” so to speak. Since Deeds’s speaking style is less polished and one that jumps from thought to thought, such a narrative may be doubly damaging for his own speaking style may reinforce a narrative that the McDonnell campaign may want to stick on him.
5) Social media: Republicans lost the last battle when it comes to social media, particularly its ability to drive news stories instead of just reacting to the news, raise funds, and organize and mobilize voters. One only has to look at the events surrounding Jim Webb’s Democratic primary victory in 2006 and how George Allen’s “macaca” gaffe went viral to see who won the last battle.
In this campaign, McDonnell has done an effective job in winning the previous war so to speak. His “McDonnell Action” social networking site surpasses anything the Deeds campaign has at this moment. McDonnell also has used his website and Facebook page to organize volunteers to knock on doors all over the Commonwealth for his campaign.
But, in fighting the previous war, is the McDonnell not as focused on the next social media battle? During the debate, Deeds campaign manager Joe Abbey actively was on twitter “tweeting” point by point responses and rebuttals while McDonnell’s “tweets” were impersonally signed “staff.” Since many reporters and bloggers are on twitter, which, at the very least on a subconscious level, influences the way reporters spin and cover stories, one has to ask if it would be in McDonnell’s interest to have a press secretary or some deputy campaign manager create a twitter account to send out more personal rebuttals and spin in real time during future debates.
6) National Issues: There is a saying in politics: When you are explaining, you are losing. If the national media makes the Virginia’s gubernatorial a national story in the fall, and all indications are that they will, then the candidate who comes off as doing the least amount of explaining may have a huge leg up in November.
The more McDonnell comes off as explaining George Bush’s presidency or actions, he is clearly losing. When it comes to issues concerning George Bush, McDonnell is better off saying less rather than more. He should keep this in mind.
Likewise, when it comes to the expansion of federal power and its potential intrusion into the Commonwealth, McDonnell has a huge advantage over Deeds. The more progress Democrats in Congress make with bills such as “Cap and Trade” or issues dealing with potentially nationalizing health care, the more of a disadvantage Deeds may have in trying to explain the actions of Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid and DNC Chair Tim Kaine that Virginians may not support.
Tony Lee is writing books about how the GOP can appeal to minorities and Generation X and Y voters while staying true to its conservative principles and values, how politics mirrors professional wrestling, and why Sarah Palin polarizes America. He also opines on how Virginia is replacing California as the nation’s new harbinger state. Follow him on twitter: @Thetonylee. E-mail him at: thetonyjlee@gmail.com
[...] debate in Virginia between Republican Bob McDonnell and Democrat Creigh Deeds. This is a definite must read, so I’ll spare you the quick summation. However, a few thoughts that Lee puts out are [...]
#4 is the most important point. I don’t think much of McDonnell’s transportation plan, it’s a rehash of stuff that hasn’t passed the General Assembly before and it’s one of those GOP “money for nothing plans” with a lot of REAL debt and a lot THEORETICAL money to service that debt. However, he’s got a plan. There’s an old saying in politics that “it’s hard to beat something with nothing.”
[...] Gubernatorial debate. Last Saturday, the candidates for governor – Democrat Creigh Deeds and Republican Bob McDonnell – squared off in the first debate of the season. If you missed it, it will be available at some point on Virginia Talks. A pretty good roundup of the debate can be found here. [...]