A recent poll showed all three Republican statewide candidates leading by double digits over their Democratic counterparts. Sarah Palin is now a political free agent, able to travel to the lower 48 and stump for candidates.
So one has to ask the question: how many points does a candidate need to be ahead to risk inviting Palin to Virginia?
As the media begin to hone in on Virginia and its elections as the next “buzzworthy” story, the speculation about whether Palin will come to Virginia to campaign will intensify.
The media needs stories, and none is bigger than Palin. So all three candidates will be asked repeatedly if they intend to invite Palin to campaign for them. Should they say yes, the media will write stories about whether inviting polarizing Palin will be a gamble. Should the candidates say “no” or give a non-answer, the media will write stories (some may say “pile on”) suggesting that Palin is as toxic among Independent voters as Jesse Jackson was during the 1980s and early 1990s.
As Dr. Bob Holsworth often says, Palin could be the Jesse Jackson of modern politics, whereby conservative candidates who want to win independent voters essentially tell her “you can do anything you want to help my candidacy, just don’t come to my state” much like what Doug Wilder told Jesse Jackson in 1989.
Recent polling shows that Palin does great among the base but may turn off independent voters.
As the candidates and their consultants decide when or if to invite Palin to Virginia, another wrinkle should be considered.
Should Messrs. Bolling, McDonnell, and Cuccinnelli win their respective races in the fall, they will be hot Republican commodities in a party sorely needing fresh ideas and faces and positive momentum.
Pundits and advisors may urge them to seek even higher offices. The speculation and buzz-machine will be greased and geared up. These candidates may even already harbor grander political ambitions.
Whomever enthusiastically supports Palin now may reap rewards down the line from a loyal conservative base that most likely will not forget the gesture of early support, especially if Palin’s stock rises during the next four years (one would think her stock most certainly could not go any lower, which means she has what all politicians dream of: a very high floor).
And there’s the rub: Inviting Palin may give these candidates a leg up in securing the GOP nomination for their next race. But, those rewards can only be reaped if the candidate wins the current race, which may be more difficult to do if they were seen with Palin on the stump.
A lot of politics isn’t rocket science to say the least. Whether to invite Palin to Virginia requires a candidate to juggle many unknown variables and is a prime example of why candidates pay their most trusted advisors and campaign managers the big bucks.
On the Palin question, these advisors will certainly be earning their paychecks.
Tony Lee is writing books about how the GOP can appeal to minorities and Generation X and Y voters while staying true to its conservative principles and values, how politics mirrors professional wrestling, and why Sarah Palin polarizes America. He also opines on how Virginia is replacing California as the nation’s new harbinger state. Follow him on twitter: @Thetonylee. E-mail him at: thetonyjlee@gmail.com
I think should be re-invite to palin.
If the Republican candidates really believe that they are up by double-digits, why take the risk on Palin?
Yes, she stirs the base, but it looks like the GOP base in Virginia is already engaged, at least more so than the Democratic base.
And what would stir up Democrats, and perhaps turn off independents, more than Palin?
Recall that during the McCain campaign Palin rallies were distinguished by calls for violence against Obama, birther nonsense and racial slurs.
Why would you want that baggage unless you thought you really needed it?
What poor, misguided sap would imagine that Gov. Palin’s rallies were marked by calls to violence, birthers, and racism? These rallies were attended by hard-working, patriotic Americans who simply want the government out of their way so they can grow and be who they are. Vaughan’s comment is a slap in the face to the thousands of Americans who attended Palin’s rallies.
Latimer:
You didn’t watch the news, you’ve got a poor memory or you’re a GOP troll? Which is it? Because my statement wasn’t debatable, it was a recounting of historical, documentable fact.
I pride myself as a person who is current on all news events, and I have an excellent memory that serves me well. I’m not a troll and Vaughan’s comments are incorrect — and thus debatable.