For the last few months, anyone who had money invested in the stock market has been concerned about “picking a bottom.”
Are things really turning around for good or do we have just have a bear market rally that will ultimately result in the market testing new lows with a vengeance?
The Virginia Democrats, it seems, are dealing with the inverse issue: picking a top.
Is the Democratic trajectory, driven by population change, trends in party identification, and the consecutive victories of Warner, Kaine, Webb and Obama, so strong in Virginia that Creigh Deeds simply needs to hitch his donkey, Harry S. Truman, to these powerful demographic forces and ride them to the Governor’s Mansion in Richmond?
Or
Have the Democrats hit a top?
Is momentum starting to swing in the GOP direction ?
Do
The NOVA special elections, the early statewide polls, the reaction to closing the rest stops, Obama’s declining support and anxiety about jobs and the economy add up to a very different environment?
Will the Deeds campaign have to find a way to win when the force may have started pulling the other way?
Investment advisers always tell people not to be “market timers.”
But politicians don’t have this luxury.
They inevitably run the wrong campaign whenever they misjudge where the political market is moving.
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