How much does President Obama care about Virginia?
A lot.
He was here last week for Deeds.
The White House dispatched its political director to Richmond a few weeks ago to see Doug Wilder.
And all indications are that the Obama White House is personally engaged in the campaign.
Why?
It’s simple.
The President knows that losses in New Jersey and Virginia would be interpreted as a dramatic reversal of the national mood and as a referendum on the first year of his presidency (whether this is really the case or not).
Moreover, the White House also knows that turning Virginia Democratic in 2008 was widely viewed as sign of how American poltics was changing.
To lose Virginia in 2009, right after he appointed Tim Kaine as Chair of the Democratic National Committee, would catalyze Republicans for 2010 regardless of what happens in New Jersey.
Yet Obama’s overall popularity and job approval ratings are down, in Virginia and nationally.
What does the combination of White House interest and the President’s declining poll numbers mean for the Deeds’ campaign?
At the moment, the Deeds’ campaign believes that Obama is still a “net plus. ”
Deeds does not want to run on the Democrats’ national policy agenda.
But it knows that Obama is a great fundraiser.
More importantly, it believes that Obama remains the single most effective Democrat at mobilizing the Democratic base.
There are certain elements of Deeds’ campaign plan such as running stronger in rural Virginia (”Deeds Country”) than Democrats normally do that is not Obama dependent.
But there are two key elements in Deeds’ victory strategy where is Obama is seen as crucial:
1) Pumping up turnout in NOVA to be about 36% of the overall state vote.
2) Ensuring that African-American turnout remains at 14% or higher of the overall state vote.
In 2005, Deeds lost because he did not run as strongly in NOVA and in the African-American American community as Tim Kaine did.
He is hoping that this year the President can help him remedy these problems, even as Bob McDonnell tries to link him to every unpopular national Democratic Party initiative.
This is the first time in recent memory where a Democratic President has been crucial to the party’s gubernatorial hopes in Virginia (though George Bush was an albatross around Republican necks for the last four years).
But no knows where the President’s numbers will be in Virginia come the end of October?
Figuring out the political calculus of the Obama Effect has now become a vital element of the race.
The Obama Effect is a wash if the Deeds campaign plays the prezs’ support front and center. A smarter move would be a ’stealth’ approach below the radar, wherein Obama keys on the newly registered Af-Am vote–robo-calls, letters, direct mail, etc. The single most salient point of the latest Rasmussen poll is that McDonnell is still below 50%. He is absolutely still beatable at this point. If Obama–and for that matter, Warner and Kaine–will go ’stealth’ to their core constituitency strengths–Obama to the Af-Ams, Warner to the business community, Kaine to the NOVA burbs–Deeds will be elected. BKD
I agree 100%- these elections will definitely reflect lack of confidence in Obama.
obama needs to let deeds have his list of cell phone #s of all those recently “restored” (by tim kaine) felons (who kaine granted voting rights); cell phone #s of those on all kinds of public assistance & those who registered last year from college towns.
those are the obama voters that deeds needs to get over the top.