Virginia Tomorrow

1. Mark Warner’s Passion

I think that a lot of people are surprised to see Senator Mark Warner in the middle of the one of the most contentious parts of the health care debate- what role the government should play in providing end-of-life counseling and assistance to patients and families- and to observe the passion with which he’s entered the fray. This week Warner noted that opponents of health care reform have been “embarassing,” “outrageous.” and have advanced arguments “based on ignorance and a horrible effort to simply scare and frighten people.”  But Warner’s concern about these issues is actually long-standing and deeply personal. About ten years ago, he spoke to one on my classes about his “Senior Navigator” project, an effort to provide families with ways of obtaining better information about care and services for seniors. Warner noted that while he was personally fortunate to have been successful and have considerable assets, he still found it difficult to obtain the information necessary to provide the best care for his parents. Many of Warner’s fellow Democrats are now willing to abandon end-of-life counseling and assistance as part of health care reform.  His willingness to be in the middle of the debate indicates just how strongly he feels about the issue.

2. The RPV Hits Delete

On any further association with Phil Hamilton. Pat Mullins, the Chair of the Republican Party of Virginia, not only joined Bob McDonnell and Bill Bolling in calling for Hamilton’s resignation but removed him as a party-affiliated candidate on the RPV website.  The RPV’s damage control effort has been swift and unambiguous.

3. Who are the Independents and

What do they care about? This seems to be the big question that could well decide the Governor’s race. GOP consultants are telling me that polls are showing that independents this year care about the economy and are worried about excessive government spending. In short, they may be more receptive to a Republican message than in 2008 and 2006 when anti-Bush sentiment and concern about the war catalyzed independents behind Democrats.  Virginia Dems should be able to tailor a message to the new environment, but it is has taken them more time than it should have to adjust.

4. Gangbusters

That’s what Steve Shannon says his AG’s office will be if he is elected in November. Shannon got off to slow start when the Governor adopted Ken Cuccinelli’s position on the need for a special session in reaction to the Melendez decision. But in the last ten days his campaign is starting to develop a clearer message and a sense of purpose as he is utilizing his experience as a prosecutor to define a set of crime-related issues on which he’d focus.

5. Where is Wagner?

Is a question that a  number of Democratic activists are asking the party’s Lieutenant-Governor candidate. The resume for the campaign is extremely impressive- a major statewide cabinet position, previous campaign experience, and an eminently likeable candidate. But fellow Democrats are wondering about both the message and visibiity of the campaign.  Bill Bolling’s candidate skills are considerable  and he has already run successfully statewide. Democrats believe that Wagner has the background to run a highly competitive race, but they’re concerned that the campaign is not (presently) fulfilling the promise of the resume.

6. Running Against Bush

The Democrats did so successfully in both 2006 and 2008.  Can they do so again in 2009? The Deeds campaign is running an ad criticicizing McDonnell for positive remarks that he made about apects of Bush’s economic program. The Dems are hoping that this is the equivalent of John McCain saying that the “fundamental of the economy are strong” in 2008. We’ll have to see how this plays out, but my initial inclination is to think that the argument is unlikely to resonate very deeply. My sense is that the public’s political passions have been redirected to other matters.

7. Running for Teachers

Or at least for bringing their salaries to the national average. The Deeds campaign wants to make this a major point of contrast with Bob McDonnell who has emphasized “education reform” in his K-12 platform. Deeds will argue that McDonnell’s reforms do not adequately support schools and teachers across Virginia in their day-to-day work.  Polls show that most Virginians (especially those with kids in school) like their schools and want to support them. Republicans don’t win elections when Democrats convince voters that the GOP is “anti-education. McDonnell’s capacity to respond to the charge and deflect it will be crucial to his chances.