Who would have ever predicted that this would have been the question that the campaign might turn on.
Only in Virginia.
So what’s the answer?
Doubtful, but still possible.
Lert’s look at 4 reasons why the Macaca Incident was so important in 2006 and see whether similar conditions hold today.
1. Macaca mobilized Democrats in 2006 behind a campaign that many had previously seen as hopeless.
George Allen was viewed by many political insiders as virtually unbeatable. Most ( including myself) thought that a Senate victory was a foregone conclusion and were busy handicapping his chances in 2008. The Macaca Incident gave hope to the Democrats and inspired the party’s base to work doubly hard against an incumbent that they disliked. Given the demographic changes that were making Virginia a “bluer” state, this was extremely important.
2009- The Thesis has mobilized part of the Democratic base and has provided the Deeds campaign with a message that it is tailoring to moderate, career-oriented women.
2. The Allen campaign responded to Macaca with a textbook example of how not to perform damage control.
Allen’s effort at damage control was a disaster. For a couple of days, some high ranking officials in the campaign denied that any such effort was needed. The delayed reaction exposed the deep and bitter tensions that existed between long-time advisers who understood Virginia and the 2006 campaign manager, Dick Wadhams, who was hired from outside, apparently to manage Allen’s national aspirations. In any event, Allen never regained his footing, compounding Macaca with other blunders and surprising observers who had previously been very impressed with his Reaganesque campaign skills.
2009- It’s to early to fully assess McDonnell’s damage control effort on the The Thesis, but it seems initially to be both more timely and unified.
3. The media became major players in extending the Macaca story.
Macaca went viral quickly. It was on the national news; it was immediately YOUTUBED; and the comedy shows couldn’t get enough of it. It then morphed into stories about the confederate flag bumper sticker he had on his car as a teenager, whether Allen used the “N Word ” in college , and whether he had knowingly denied his own Jewish heritage. The national media exhumed Allen’s past far more in the manner of a presidential than a senatorial candidate.
2009- The Virginia media is keeping The Thesis alive, particularly focusing on the manner that the socially conservative ideas expressed in it may have animated McDonnell’s agenda as a legislator. Given the importance of Virginia as a stage-setter for the 2010, the national media has also paid considerable attention to The Thesis. But there has not been any evidence produced that the dismissive/derisive comments included in The Thesis about certain kinds of people are reflective of McDonnell’s overall character or interpersonal style. Moreover, a thesis doesn’t play well on YOUTUBE.
4. Macaca took place in a political environment that was heavily tilted against the GOP
The big issues in 2006 were public disenchantment with the war in Iraq and escalating discontent with the Bush administration. The Macaca Incident punctured Allen’s aura of invincibility and, once this happened, Jim Webb was able to use the national issue landscape to his advantage.
2009- At the moment, the situation differs considerably from 2006. Public concern about taxes and spending have become more prominent and McDonnell enjoys a sizeable advantage over Deeds on these issues in recent polling.
The Bottom Line- The Thesis has injected the Deeds campaign with some needed energy and enthusiasm. But given the issue landscape of 2009, it’s unlikely to be decisive in itself, unless the McDonnell campaign fails to do a minimally competent job of damage control or other more surprising revelations emerge.
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