Virginia Tomorrow

1. Who is James Oberstar and Why Is He Sending Nastygrams to Tim Kaine?

This is unbelievable!  In the middle of the most important election being held in the United States this year, a Democratic congressional committe chair sends a letter to Tim Kaine, Virginia’s Governor and Chair of the Democratic National Committee, excoriating him for being a laggard on spending congressional stimulus dollars allocated to transportation projects, a key issue in this year’s race. The incident raises serious questions about the political operation of the national Democratic Party. How does one of Nancy Pelosi’s deputies take a second job in Virginia delivering manna from Republican heaven?

2. Forget the Punditry and Start Politicking

That’s what Creigh Deeds must be saying this week after hearing Brian Schweitzer, Chair of the Democratic Governor’s Association, and Tim Kaine speculate about the difficulty of keeping Virginia blue this year. Whenever George Allen was asked to reflect on his chances in an election, he used to remark “I’ll leave the punditry to Sabato and Holsworth. I’m working to get votes from the people.”  I wouldn’t be surprised if the Deeds campaign would like to pass on Allen’s advice right now.

3. Virginia’s Unemployment Rate is 6.5%

More than three percentage points lower than the national average of 9.8%. The information confirms one major point that the Democrats have been trying to make throughout the campaign: the Virginia economy is performing, in relative terms, better than the rest of the nation. Democrats have struggled, however, to find a way to make Virginia’s economic performance more relevant than the uneasiness voters have with conditions in Washington.  They’ll have to find a way to do this in the next few weeks if they want to remain in control of the statehouse.

4. Mark Warner to the Rescue?

Polls this week said that Warner is the most popular of recent Governors. He cut a thirty second ad for Creigh Deeds, claiming that Deeds shared his pro-business, low tax approach to government. Democrats are hoping that Warner is willing to use even more of his political capital in the next few weeks, that he’ll barnstorm the state with Deeds and attack Bob McDonnell by name.

5. Polling Numbers Turn Back

Toward Bob McDonnell ths week. For the past month, Deeds appeared to be a steady upward climb, but the numbers released this week say the rise has been arrested. The numbers weren’t fully consistent, having McDonnell up by 5, 9, and 14. But the bad news for Democrats was that McDonnell was comfortably ahead even in the poll that had the most Democratic-leaning voter turnout assumptions. It’s gut check time for the Deeds campaign- it needs to address the weaknesses in the campaign and really sharpen a message for a major push in the final 30 days.

6. Testy and Frosty

Might be good words to define the relationship between Tim Kaine and Bob McDonnell these days.  The Governor is making no secret of his belief that McDonnell’s social agenda will move the state backwards and his economic policies will threaten the progress made under Warner-Kaine. McDonnell returned fire at the higher ed summit this week, observing that the systematic disinvestment in higher ed during the last eight years undermined the Democrats’ claim that they are “pro-education.”

7. The Best Campaign We’re Hearing Nothing About

Is the Ken Cuccinelli-Steve Shannon race. If you believe that campaigns should express clear distinctions and do so with passion, this is your contest. The race, at the moment, is being completely overshadowed by what is happening at the top of the ticket. But the AG occupies an extraordinarily important role in Virginia and the race deserves far more attention. I think that the remarkable debate they had on Friday has perhaps caught the attention of the media and, if we’re fortunate, we’ll be hearing a lot more about this contest during the the next 30 days.