Virginia Tomorrow

Anyone who watches Virginia politics is aware of the Presidential Curse.

In every election cycle since 1976, Virginia has elected a Governor who comes from the opposite party of the President elected the previous year.

Since Obama broke the GOP’s 40 year string of victories in presidential elections, it is now the longest running political streak in Virginia.

Is the Curse just a quirk of fate?

Or does it embody some deeper political truth?

The punditocracy had lined up as follows:

Political Truth- Larry Sabato and Tim Kaine (one of our Governors most given to punditry)

Quirk- Bob Holsworth 

I had always felt that the Curse was a quirk because it seemed apparent to me that the so-called response to national elections and national conditions was far from the same when you examine these elections separately.

The dynamics of gubernatorial elections in the 1980’s, for example, are very different than the conditions that have been prevalent in recent years.

I didn’t believe (and still don’t) that any of the gubernatorial elections of the 1980’s (all won by Democrats) was a direct rebuke to the Republican holding the presidency.

Both Ronald Reagan and Gorge Bush were quite popular in Virginia and voters were not attempting to send them a message by electing Democratic governors.

But I’m starting to think that Larry’s and Tim Kaine’s position makes increasing sense in today’s Virginia.

Put simply, our elections are increasingly influenced by the reactions of Virginia voters to what is happening in Washington.

George Bush was an albatross around the necks of Jerry Kilgore and George Allen.

And the negative response to the Democratic Congress and Obama’s policy agenda unsettled this year’s campaign in a way to which the Virginia Democrats have been slow to respond.

I’m still not sure that this is necessarily a “curse.”  I can imagine a popular President would be very helpful to his party in Virginia.

But it hard to deny the increasingly close linkage between our politics and what is happening to the north.

You know, I thought I saw someone in the summer of 2008 who looked suspiciously like Bob McDonnell standing and staring in front on Obama sign.

And as I got closer, I still couldn’t tell exactly whether it was really McDonnell, but I could hear him voicing these words, over and over.

“Yes, we can..

Yes, we can. “