A number of media reports were downright gleeful last week when a Public Policy Polling survey asserted that Doug Wilder’s
non-endorsement
was a non-issue.
The old son-of-a-something
Had been finally been marginalized, put in the dustbin of history by a polling firm
From North Carolina no less, that showed
Creigh Deeds
was more popular with African-American voters than
Doug Wilder.
Take that!
I’m a friend of Wilder but I still found it curious that
The North Carolina firm knew something
that President Obama, Governor Kaine and Deeds himself
Hadn’t discovered.
Why were they spending so much time courting the guy,
Massaging his ego,
When nobody was going to be listening anyway?
And Bob McDonnell
What in the world was he doing?
Using Wilder’s warnings about taxes and spending in one of his television ads.
Who cared?
But a new Washington Post poll has just been released
And it turns out that
Obama, Kaine, and Deeds might know something about Virginia
That the North Carolina company didn’t catch.
Dan Balz and Anne Kornblut have the money quote:
Last November, African Americans made up 20% of the Virginia electorate….Today African Americans comprise just 12%of the likely gibernatorial electorate. To underscore the significance of this shift, if African Americans in Virginia were participating at the same level as a year ago, and if Deeds were capturing 90% of their votes, the gubernatorial race would be a virtual dead heat.
There are obviously many reasons for the apparent lack of enthusiasm for Deeds among African-American voters,
Reasons that extend far beyond Wilder.
But politics is an activity where
People pick up on
Subtle cues, visual images and what’s not said (or who’s non-endorsed)
The Deeds campaign has a little more than three weeks (which can be a couple of lifetimes in politics),
But it’s yet to generate the kind of excitement in the Democratic base that can generate enthusiasm and effectively counter the other cues that have been sent.
Moreover, Wilder’s expressed concerns about money and spending
Reinforced the perception
That the Democrats might be ceding the issue of
Fiscal responsibility,
The party’s secret weapon among independents in the last three victorious campaigns.
It’s foolish and even insulting to think that voters
Sit around waiting for someone else to tell them
How to cast their ballots.
It’s never something that drives the vote.
But endorsements, non-endorsements, appearances and non-appearances, financial support and the lack thereof, the issues that you emphasize and the tone you employ, etc.
All contribute to the big picture of the campaign.
And, as the Post poll shows, the Wilder non-endorsement (regardless of what you think about his stance) illuminated bases that Deeds had yet to cover.
Even if the North Carolina company said it didn’t matter.
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