Virginia Tomorrow

The new Washington Post poll confirms some of the criticisms that have been raised about the Deeds campaign by his fellow Democrats in recent days.

The most damaging bit of information is not the bottom line result that has Deeds down by nine points.

It is the public perception about the relative negativity  of the campaigns.

60% of likely voters think that McDonnell is running a positive campaign, compared to 32% that believe he is running a negative one. On the other hand, 56% of likely voters say that Deeds has primarily a negative campaign, with only 37% perceiving it as a postive one.

The Post runs a comparison showing that these numbers essentially duplicate the perceptions about Kaine-Kilgore  in 2005, with the parties reversed.

Whenever this perception emerges this late in a campaign, it puts the candidate who is on the short end in a real box.

As much as you want to criticize your opponent’s records and ideas, doing so merely reinforces your own negative image.

The poll shows that Deeds has a little more than three weeks to make an affirmative case.

Is there one available?

Probably.

And I think that it goes something like this.

First, Deeds needs to emphasize “The Bests” that the Democrats have already achieved- best managed state under the last three Democratic governors (include Wilder), best place to do business, and best place to raise a child. 

Not a bad record to run on.

Even in the tough times we’re experiencing today, Virginia is far better off than most places.

Second, support for education.

This is a classic Democratic issue that never goes far away from the top of the public priority list. The Post poll shows that education today still ranks equal to jobs as the top public priority in Virginia.

Deeds has made an all too convoluted argument here, contending that McDonnell wants to defund education by pulling money from the general fund for transportation.

As if voters have a detailed understanding of the architecture of Virginia’s budget.

By contrast, a simple positive message could be helpful.

Third, inclusiveness.

The Democrats have done extremely well in recent national and Virginia elections by emphasizing their commitment to inclusiveness, their dedication to enabling all citizens, regardless of ethnic and social backgrounds, to flourish and pursue the American dream.

Deeds own personal bio of how far he’s come from a hardscrabble background is a compelling narrative, one that could be shaped into a compelling story about his dedication to ensuring that all Virginians are given the same opportunity.

Finally, tough choices.

Deeds might talk about the willingness of Democrats over time to make the tough choices- to cut budgets to keep Virginia well managed and to invest when needed in high priority areas such as education.

Would all this be enough to overcome a nine point deficit in 3 weeks?

Maybe not, especially because of the bind that Deeds has managed to get himself into on tax issues.

But I recall Don Beyer reflecting on his loss to Jim Gilmore and being asked what he regretted most.

As I remember it, he said that he wished he done a better job making a positive case for his own candidacy, telling the public what he believed and letting them know about his passion for making Virginia a better place.

Coming into the race, there were some Democrats who believed that if they just exposed the “real Bob McDonnell”  the results of the 2005 matchup would be reversed.

The Post poll indicates that this is no longer an option.

2009 is different.

The energy that has gone into “exposing” McDonnell has merely tarnished Deeds.

The Affirmative Case may be the only option on the table.