Wasn’t really resting on a debate gamechanger (which rarely occurs).
Or a brand new issue that hasn’t been discussed.
Or even a big mistake by Bob McDonnell (even though the Democrats would certainly welcome one).
My sense, after speaking with some folks close to the Deeds campaign, is that they see a glimmer of hope in the otherwise depressing poll numbers released by The Washington Post on Friday.
Deeds is down by nine in the poll, is seen as far more negative by the voters than McDonnell, and is viewed as less capable of handling all the big issues.
Doesn’t appear to be much reason for optimism.
Yet
At least some Democrats believe that the upside potential actually tilts in their direction.
The Post’s sample of likely voters, with leaners included, is more Republican than the electorates in not only 2008 but in 2005, reflecting the Enthusiasm Gap this year that has been so widely noted.
In the Post’s survey, Deeds is significantly underperforming recent Democratic candidates inside the NOVA Beltway.
And the dropoff in African-American interest in the election is precipitous.
In 2008, African-Americans made up 20% of the Virginia electorate. If the election for Governor were held last week, the Post poll said that African-Americans would comprise 12% of the voters.
A Democratic insider told me last night that if “African-Americans only make 12% of the electorate we’re doomed. ”
But
“If we run stronger in the African-American community and inside the Beltway, we’ll narrow the gap.”
There’s a logic to the argument.
The most likely place for Deeds to pick up voters is among Democrats who are presently indifferent to the campaign.
And if Deeds gains some momentum, maybe independent voters will take a second look and be impressed by the personal story that Deeds’ ads are now conveying.
Maybe and perhaps are the operative words.
The electorate’s current belief that McDonnell is better equipped to handle tax matters, transportation, and the economy is very bad news for the Deeds campaign.
Daunting is an accurate word to describe Deeds’ challenge in the next few weeks.
But the Democrats know, in many cases by name and address, a couple of hundred thousand voters who normally support their candidates.
They’re clearly behind.
But at least know who they have to call.
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