It’s now five days since Virginia’s election day, surely long enough to gain near infallible insight into the tea leaves harvested by the results!
The problem, of course, is that there are a plethora of “infallible insights” from folks gazing at the tea leaves with glasses tinted with a particular political hue.
Objective observers are hard to find and most of the commentary is from partisans, both in the political realm and the media, who are more interested in a favorable spin than reality.
With that acknowledgement and without claiming objectivity, but with a genuine effort at fair analysis, I offer some thoughts for consideration.
As I see it here are the “money” factors that offer insight into why Virginia bestowed its electoral blessings on the GOP. Each played a role with some more important than others:
- The Democrats had a bruising, expensive primary battle for Governor. Meanwhile, Bob McDonnell used the Spring and much of the Summer to develop the problem-solving strategy that defined him for the voters who actually voted before Democrats launched their effort to toss him outside the political mainstream by trumpeting his conservative social views that were part of his background.
- McDonnell held his base by consistently reaffirming his conservative views on social issues when asked, but never varied from his laser-like focus on the economy, transportation and education, while issuing position papers like “chiclets from a chiclet’s factory”, as former House Democratic Majority Leader, Jimmy Thompson, once labeled the opinions frequently emanating from the office of Attorney General Andy Miller.
- By stressing issues that concern all Virginians and offering solutions, he appealed to the independents who hold the balance of power in Virginia politics. They are by and large centrists who do not align with the extremes of either party.
- He exploited the hostility of many of these centrist independents to much of the Obama agenda, including unprecedented spending, potential tax increases, massive intrusion into health care, cap and trade, and card check.
- McDonnell ran an overwhelmingly positive campaign, while Creigh Deeds, seizing on McDonnell’s 20 year old Master’s Thesis, the more controversial parts of which were easily refuted by his record as AG and his remarkable daughter, went too negative for too long with too much distortion and produced a backlash that hurt him.
- McDonnell eclipsed Deeds as a candidate. He is far more articulate and polished. Calm and unflappable with a pleasant demeanor. The cameras love him. Deeds, while universally hailed as a nice guy, enjoys none of these advantages.
- The low turnout produced an electorate far more friendly to Republicans than Democrats. Important segments of the Democratic coalition-African Americans, Hispanics, younger voters, and others just stayed home. And this magnified McDonnell’s decisive advantage among independents and inflated his ultimate margin.
- McDonnell promised not to increase taxes and a more efficient government, while Deeds at first appeared indecisive and then swung open the door for tax increases– at least for transportation– during an economic tsunami impacting the lives of so many. His indecisiveness was the antithesis of leadership.
- McDonnell’s running mates, Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling and AG candidate Sen. Ken Cucchinelli, ran superior campaigns and benefited from missteps by their opponents-Lt. Gov. candidate Jody Wagner’s myopic mantra about Bolling’s lack of personal attendance at meetings and AG candidate Steve Shannon’s huge miscue on the Melendez Special Session.
- In summary, an unusually light turnout featured the more traditional demographic Virginia where Republicans enjoy an advantage. The independents in this electorate were dominated by center right moderates who move back and forth between the parties based on their perception of who is likely to move Virginia forward towards transportation improvements, educational advances, maintain our business friendly environment and manage state government more efficiently, including avoiding most tax increases.
These voters are sophisticated enough to associate what the Parties are doing in Washington with what is good for Virginia and the country. They consider all this when making their choices.
For the most part, the social issues that are vital to many GOP stalwarts do not motivate these independents. A Republican candidate perceived as too focused on them, at the expense of what state government primarily does, loses much of this independent support.
This year, led by Bob McDonnell from the beginning with his opposition to Jeff Frederick continuing as state party chair and his early focus on bipartisan or non partisan redistricting, GOP candidates by and large submerged the divisive issues and hard partisanship, in favor of main street issues to which these independents respond.
This essential part of the GOP coalition for the most part supports GOP candidates not because of the hot button issues like abortion, gay marriage, immigration, capital punishment and the like, but because they conclude the overall package is more acceptable than the alternative.
This GOP statewide ticket probably holds views on the “social issues” that are certainly as “conservative”, and maybe more so, than any before.
But this year Bob McDonnell, like Mark Warner and Tim Kaine, projected the hope of an administration focused on the issues that will actually constitute the agenda for tomorrow and appeared to be the one who will seek solutions with bipartisan leadership.
It was a good day for Republicans. Better than anyone predicted with the major increase in GOP ranks in the House of Delegates.
It is a platform to build upon. But will that happen?
Maybe, maybe not!!
House Republicans are already threatening to cut off funding for Planned Parenthood at a time when teen pregnancies continue unabated and present huge issues in our major cities.
Many of these independents who supported Republicans won’t warm to that. If Republicans maneuver to gain control of the State Senate, shun bipartisan redistricting and drive a hard-edged partisan redistricting plan into law, many of these independents won’t like it.
And if the ideological purity that drives the tea party express and cost the GOP a safe seat in New York’s 23rd congressional district forces similar warfare in Virginia, watch out!!
And because of low turnout, Republicans avoided the electorate composed of the new demographics of modern Virginia. That will change with Democratic candidates who are more compelling and yes, more charismatic, than those this time.
The demographic electorate we saw last Tuesday is unlikely to be repeated. Republicans must face that reality.
To a significant extent the Republicans who take office in January hold the keys to the GOP future in Virginia. If leaders patterned after Bob McDonnell emerge in the legislature, particularly in the House of Delegates, the future is promising.
But if not, if the “my way or the highway” style gains sway, if the primary motive is partisan gain, rather than finding acceptable ways to address transportation, education, and a host of other issues, the same independents who provided the margin of victory to Republicans this time will provide it to the next Mark Warner or Tim Kaine in the years ahead.
Virginia is a center right state. CENTER right. Republicans need to remember the center is part of the coalition they need to win and govern that way.
Otherwise, those Democrats who do understand that will once again find the key to the governor’s mansion and to the hearts and minds of Virginia’s independent voters.
Another election is now less than a year away. No time outs in Virginia!! Much of what will influence the electorate in November 2010 is not now known.
But how Republicans govern in Richmond will be one factor and the curtain is already rising on the next act.
Wyatt Durrette is a Director at DurretteBradshaw, PLC (www.durrettebradshaw.com) and co-founder of the XDL Group. He served three terms in the House of Delegates and was the Republican candidate for Governor in 1985.
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