Governor Kaine’s comments on a radio show last week fueled speculation that he’ll be endorsing a tax increase to deal with the state budget shortfall in the outgoing budget he’ll be presenting to the General Assembly.
Without committing to a particular recommendation, the Governor observed that “he’ll do the right thing” when the tax issue was raised.
I recognize that states are taking very different positions about whether a tax increase is the “right thing” to preserve services in a challenging budgetary environment.
But it’s hard for me to see how this is the “right time” for such a proposal in Virginia, at least at the state level.
First, a proposal to increase taxes ought to be accompanied by a sustained effort to convince the public that it is the “right thing” to do, something akin to what Mark Warner did in 2004.
If he felt this strongly about it, Governor Kaine could have made the case last year when he had months to see if he could develop popular support. With forty-five days left in his term, a proposed tax increase is likely to be perceived more as a parting shot than as a serious policy recommendation.
Second, we’ve just had an election in Virginia where support and opposition to a tax increase for transportation figured prominently.
Creigh Deeds said during the campaign that he would support a recommendation from a bipartisan commission to raise taxes to fund transportation improvements. His opponent , Bob McDonnell, said that he would find a way to increase transportation revenues without additional taxes.
The Washington Post editorial page wrote (correctly, I believe) that if Deeds won the election, he would have a mandate to raise the gas tax.
But Deeds lost in a landslide and the mandate went entirely in McDonnell’s direction.
At the moment, there is nothing that the outgoing Governor could really do or say that could reverse the mandate McDonnell obtained in the election.
This isn’t to say that the mandate can’t erode over time or even that the public won’t change its mind about what should be done.
But it’s hard to think that the people haven’t spoken about what they expect from state government in the immediate future.
Finally, I’m not certain that many members of the Governor’s own party would actually want to vote on a tax increase proposal right now.
Legislators watch voters very closely and, if you’re a Democrat who isn’t sitting in a safe seat, you weren’t very happy watching all those Independent head over to the Republican bench in 2009.
To his credit, Tim Kaine is a man of integrity who has taken stances against the prevailing political winds.
He was against the death penalty when some thought it meant automatic disqualification from statewide office. He came out for Barack Obama when almost every other Democratic Governors feared permanently alienating the Clinton machine.
But why propose a tax increase when you don’t have the time to make the case and most members of your own party are unlikely to support it?
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