1. Hard Times, Frayed Nerves
Both were evident this week in the presentation and response to what Bob Lewis called Governor Kaine’s “brutal” budget message. “Folly.” “Gutshot” “Dead on Arrival,” and “Non-Starter” were just a few of the words used by the Governor and his detractors about the budget proposals. Kaine maintained that his recommendations were the same that he would have made had he been able to run and win a second term. His critics opined that it was the budget of someone who did have to be accountable for any of the choices he offered. In my opinion, it all pointed to the advisability of changing the state’s budget cycle so that the outgoing Governor is not proposing a new two year budget on his way out the door.
2. No Car Tax (Subsidy to Localities)
That’s what Tim Kaine endorsed on Friday. The Governor proposed eliminating out all state car tax relief to local governments and replacing it with a 1% increase in the state income tax for all Virginians that would be allocated to local governments. The GOP did not take kindly to the proposal. Bill Howell pronounced it Dead on Arrival and Kirk Cox called it a non-starter. It’ll be interesting to see how many Assembly Democrats actually vote for a broad-based tax increase in January. For his part, Governor-Elect McDonnell will have to find approximately $1 billion in additional reductions that’ll be necessary when the income tax proposal meets its destined fate in the GOP-controlled House.
3. The Constitutional Officers Take a Couple of Hits
If my memory serves me, the three largest state expenditures to localities are public education, car tax relief, and support for local constitutional officers. Besides calling for the elimination of the state subsidy for car tax relief, Governor Kaine’s outgoing budget also called for the elimination of state support for the staffs of local constitutional officers by $270 million. In both instances, he defended the proposed reduction with a liberal sprinkling of derision that implied it was not simply economic necessity driving the recommendation. He called the car tax a billion dollar “folly” and observed that as mayor he often wondered just what some of the constitutional officers - especially the treasurer and the commissioner of revenue- actually did. In each instance, his critics wondered that if it was such a good idea, why wasn’t it offered in previous years when he would have been around to fight for it.
4. A Gutshot
That’s how Ron Jordan, speaking for the Virginia Government Employees Association, described the outgoing Governor’s proposed budget, one that will include layoffs, no pay raises for two years, and changes to the Virginia Retirement System that will call for employee contributions. It won’t be easy for any group of government workers to elicit that much sympathy given some of the extraordinary reductions that have been seen recently in the private sector. But in my experience, Virginia state government employees are extremely dedicated and responsible for the high ratings that the state typically gets for efficient and honest government. Modernizing the compensation and beenfit system might be good for employees and citizens alike.
5. New Ways of Doing Business
If you add up all the concerns expressed about the Commonwealth’s budgetary situation, it seems that Governor-Elect McDonnell is faced with a fundamental choice. Will he try to get by and muddle through the situation for the next 12-24 months by adjusting and tweaking budget cut percentages or will he attempt, in key areas, to fundamentally redefine how the state operates - in transportation, in higher ed, in tax policy, and in its relationship with localities? My guess is that he’s more inclined toward the latter approach. Yet all of these issues, one-by-one, are challenging and complicated. Taken together, it’s a pretty daunting agenda that will tell us a lot about how conservatism can address 21st Century state-based challenges.
6. Bruce Allen Returns to Pro Football, Will George Allen
Be returning to the playing field as well? The former Senator and Governor has been far more visible in the last six months than anytime since 2006. Just this week he held a press conference to criticize the Democrats’ health care proposals. Allen has remained popular with the Virginia GOP, most of whom believe that, regardless of the mistakes he made, Allen was also the target of a media hit. I’m not sure that Allen has really made up his own mind, but given his competitive nature, he may not want to be on the sidelines for too much longer.
7. Once in a Lifetime
That’s what Anthony Bedell, Chair of the Fairfax Republican Party, told The Washington Post that 2010 would be for the GOP. If the election was held today, the survey questions that are the best indicators of the congressional vote point to a significant GOP gain in the House, one that could actually threaten the Democratic majority. If Pat Herrity does decide to challenge Gerry Connolly, we could actually have four competitive races in the Commonwealth. I think that Bedell is right about how Republicans are viewing 2010, but it is too early to say whether they’ll be able to sustain the momentum they apparently have today.
Dear Bob Holsworth (aka, Nancy Pelosi in reverse drag, aka, the ghost of Ted Kennedy, aka Harry Reid’s younger brother):
No arm of government subsidizes any reduction in taxes. Taxes subsidize government. All money earned in the United States is, first and foremost, the property of the people who earned the money. The money is not earned by the government and then allowed to the people.
An anal-retentive state government locked in the political philosophy of the 19th century cannot subsidize a locality in any way. When the nameless, faceless Richmond insiders who really run the Commonwealth of Virginia insist on a strict implementation of Dillon’s Rule (in order to continue their shadowy control of the Commonwealth) they also take responsibility for financing everything in the state. If you want localities to take more responsibility for their own operations there should be a constitutional amendment guaranteeing them aspects of home rule. After that, it might be fair to talk about the state using our money to subsidize a locality. Until that, all the talk of the state subsidizing any locality is pure clap trap.
Happy Holidays,
Groveton (aka, Atilla the Hun, Pat Buchanan’s younger brother, etc).
Atilla the Hun or Pat Buchanan’s younger brother can not not change the fact that on the national level the GOP, during the George W. Bush administration, raised Federal spending 8% more than President Johnson did with the Great Society and his 560 social programs (adjusted for 1964-1968 comparative value of the US buck). That fact that Tim Kaine inherited, and participated in, a 1.3 Billion dollar tax increase under Governor Warner’s administration and yet has had to deal with the worst fiscal fallout since the depression would signal that spending has to be cut or taxes raised in order to have a mandated balanced budget. Some Dems were not happy with Kaine’s suggestion, in his first week in office, that we raise taxes for Virginians and it did not happen and yet Gilmore ran a one platform campaign to rid the state of the car tax, knowing that on his watch he would be free and clear of dealing with the financial consequences that we are now faced with. This is not a battle between the likes of the late Ted Kennedy -vs- the conservative banter of Pat Buchannan but about the choices our incoming Governor must make after the worst leadership on wallstreet in our lifetime. Happy Holidays!