Virginia Tomorrow

1. Yes, With an Explanation

That’s how both Jim Webb and Mark Warner voted on the health care bill this week. Virginia’s two senators said they had reservations about the bill, but felt that some of the improvements they suggested had been incorporated. They also argued that the cost of inaction and the status quo was ultimately more expensive than the price of reform. The GOP feels that Obamacare will be as costly to the Democrats in this year’s congressional elections as Hillarycare was in 1994. I’m not so certain. I tend to believe that the Democrats will be judged by the overall state of the economy next November. If the election was held today, Republicans would do very, very well. But I plan to wait and see how well the economy recovers before offering any predictions.

2. The Power of Perhaps

That’s what George Allen said in response to Roz Helderman’s direct question about whether he’d run against Jim Webb in 2012. It’s amazing how significant a simple “perhaps” can be. With that one word, Allen has essentially frozen the Republican field until he decides how interested he really is in returning to the Senate. Allen’s “perhaps” has bought him time to see how the national and state political mood evolves as we approach 2012 and to reflect on how strong his own passion for elective office still is. Two points are clear. Allen will seriously consider another run for elective office. And he remains very popular in Virginia Republican circles.

3. No, and I Mean It

That’s what Bob McDonnell is saying about the tax increases that are part of Tim Kaine’s outgoing budget. It would, of course, be political suicide for McDonnell to back away from his campaign pledge not to raise taxes, even if it won’t be very pleasant having to identify another billion dollars in spending reductions.

4. Surovell v. Kaine (and probably McDonnell too)

If you haven’t read Delegate-Elect Scott Surovell’s analysis of the outgoing Governor’s budget and what it may mean for NOVA, you should. Writing from a regional, NOVA-centric perspective, the newly elected Democratic delegate labels the Kaine budget the first volley in what he perceives as the emerging War on Fairfax. Surovell contends that the recommendation to delay K-12 “rebenchmarking”, proposed Medicaid cuts, and the tuition increases that will result from dramatic funding reductions to colleges and universities are an attack on the NOVA middle class. Surovell’s commentary is instructive for a number of reasons. It articulates a NOVA v. Richmond sentiment that is becoming increasingly prominent;  it indicates that regional concerns often trump party loyalty in Virginia politics; and it establishes Surovell as a freshman delegate who is not simply heading to Richmond to go along to get along.

5.  2010 and the Tenth Amendment

It might be a big year for the 10th Amendment in Virginia. Attorney General-Elect Ken Cuccinelli has vowed to oppose what he considers federal overreach on the part of the national government. Bob Marshall is opposing the national Democratic health care reform legislation on the grounds, in part, that it may be unconstitutional. And members of the General Assembly are prefiling legislation written to address burgeoning 10th Amendment concerns. At a time when Washington is not very popular, we may begin to see far more 10th Amendement-ers in the states.

6. What Happened to Taliban?

Taliban Bob that is? During the heat of the campaign, some Democratic supporters charged that if McDonnell was elected Governor, he’d initiate an unprecedented right-wing takeover of Virginia state government and that his thesis was his “blueprint” for how he’d move Virginia backwards. But his Cabinet choices so far seem to be chosen far more on competence criteria than ideological grounds, even including two high level Kaine administration appointees. I certainly expect that McDonnell will be conservative on social issues, but the composition of his administration appears to be a pretty big tent in which merit and experience are major factors.

7. Mr. Murtaugh Goes to Washington

Tim Murtaugh, spokesperson for the Republican Party of Virginia, is heading to D.C. to perform similar duties as a part of the team at the Republican Governor’s Association. One of the underappreciated elements of the 2009 story was how RPV was reorganized and was entirely on message with the McDonnell campaign. Tucker Martin helped, I think, to get Murtaugh back in Richmond and the two worked extremely well together.  Murtaugh got under the Democrats’ skin early on with his attacks on Kaine’s out-of-state travels and  was a  continual burr under the saddle of the Deeds campaign. Murtaugh’s performance was reminiscent of Steve Haner’s success in irritating Democrats when he was the chief spokesperson for the GOP in the Assembly. I’m certain that the Virginia Democrats are very pleased with Murtaugh’s promotion to Washington.