Virginia Tomorrow

1. The Washington Connection

To Virginia politics has essentially become institutionalized. What happens in Virginia is increasingly covered as an important signal about the national political dialogue. This was true of the Webb-Allen race in 2006, Obama’s successful effort to carry the Commonwealth in 2008, and the GOP sweep in 2009. The 2010 Congressional races are only likely to reinforce this trend.  If November is going to be a “wave election” for the GOP in which the party makes a serious run to take back the House, they’ll have to net at least two of these seats in Virginia.

2. The Volatility Index

Do you ever see those stock market crawls on CNBC that provide a number noting how volatile the markets are are on on any given day? I think that we need one for the national political arena also. Just ask our Governor. A few weeks back, he was widely seen as the model for a new, re-energized conservatism that focused on job creation and economic recovery. But after the Confederate History proclamation, the national asssessment turned almost uniformly bearish, culminating in an attack by Frank Rich of The New York Times suggesting that the edict was a calculated political effort to appeal to an anti-Obama sentiment coursing through the nation. It has been an extraordinary two weeks that has shown how a single action can transform the national media’s coverage of a political figure.

3. Coal  Country, President Obama and Rick Boucher

Here’s another story that the whole nation will wind up watching. Rick Boucher has been a popular Congressman for more than two decades. Yet President Obama’s unpopularity in coal country may be as low as it is almost anywhere in America. Will Boucher be able to keep his seat against Morgan Griffith, Virginia House Majority leader and a formidable challenger? Or will Obama’s unpopularity in the region and Boucher’s role in negotiating a cap and trade compromise agreement prove to be his undoing?

4. 92% of 122

That’s what the Governor’s office said was Bob McDonnell’s batting average at the reconvened session on the amendments he proposed  to legislation passed by the General Assembly. What a fascinating power this is- it essentially enables the Governor to act as a legislator after the Assembly has done its business.  Given the national hammering he has taken over the past few weeks, you can bet that the Governor’s office was extremely pleased that McDonnell was able to pass the vast majority of his state agenda and maintain a good success rate with his proposed amendments.

5. College Tuitions

You’re likely to be hearing a lot more about this matter during the next few years. As Virginia’s public colleges and universities struggle with budget cutbacks and the likely end of stimulus funding next year, the pressures to increase tuition in order to mantain services and quality will become even more substantial.  And this will inevitable raise important questions about accessibility and affordability. I expect that Higher Ed Commission and the General Assembly next year to place the funding model for colleges and universities high on its agenda.

6. Lynchburg and Liberty

I don’t know how many people have been paying close attention to local politics in Lynchburg lately, but if you’re not you should. Liberty University, which has become a major player in the local economy, is working to exercise greater political clout as well. Liberty students were instrumental in the defeat of Shannon Valentine and the election of Scott Garrett to the House in 2009. Theyare preparing to becoming a major force in the local City Council elections. And town-gown zoning issues resulted in a remarkable exchange about the propriety of secretly taping a meeting that occurred when high level city officials met with Liberty administrators. With Glenn Beck coming to town as the commencement speaker, Liberty’s political profile is likely to become even more prominent.

7. “Perhaps” Again

Former Senator and Governor George Allen was the featured speaker at the annual Shad Planking this week. Asked about whether he’d be seeking a rematch with  Jim Webb in 2012, Allen repeated the answer he gave a few months back: “Perhaps.”  It’s not suprising that Allen is sticking to his story. He has essentially frozen the potential Republican field; he is starting to put together a fund-raising apparatus; and he continues to buy time to see if the national dynamic that currently favors Republicans is changed or reinforced by the November elections. Yet most people that I speak to in the GOP camp are coming to believe that “Perhaps” means “Yes.”