Virginia Tomorrow

1. What Does Kentucky, Arkansas and Pennsylvania Tell Us: Part One

I think that this week’s elections first tell us that passionate activists are increasingly conrtolling party nominations. Specter loses in Pennsylvania despite the support of the political establishment. Blanche Lincoln is forced into a runoff in Arkansas. And Rand Paul wins handily in Kentucky with Tea Party support despite Mitch McConnell’s endorsement of his opponent. In each of these instances, the party base either defeated or fought to a standstill the party elite. In Virginia, these results make Robert Hurt’s decision to hire Chris LaCivita as consultant/strategist in the 5th District race look better every day inasmuch as he understands the internal dynamics of a GOP primary as well as anyone in Virginia.

2. What Does Kentucky, Arkansas and Pennsylvania Tell Us : Part Two

New faces have pluses and minuses.  It didn’t long for Rand Paul to give the national GOP indigestion when he observed that he philosophically opposed the reasoning behind the Civil Rights Act of 1964 that prohibited private businesses from discriminating on the basis of race.  Republicans want to campaign in November against Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid and the federal “overreach” of the Obama agenda, not against America’s landmark civil rights legislation. Look for the Democrats to put as many Republicans as possible “on record” about Paul’s remarks.

3. Where Do We Stand in Virginia?

There are four Democratic incumbents- Nye, Perriello, Boucher, and Connolly- who are likely to face stiff, well-funded challenges. In three of the districts- Nye, Perriello, and Boucher- public opinion and President Obama and the Democratic Congress are likely to offer a considerable headwind for the Dems. But it’s not at all clear at the moment just how well any of the Republican candidates will actually play.  Campaigns become real when they become contests between flesh and blood candidates  and not simply speculation about the national mood. The overall economic environment gives the GOP an edge- but we don’t know how well they’ll capitalize.

4. Liberals Cheer McDonnell 

For reforming and speeding up the process for restoring the rights of non-violent felons who have served their time. I don’t think that anyone doubts that McDonnell is a tough on crime kid of guy, but he has made his committment to re-entry and rehabilitation crystal clear as well. During the gubernatorial transition, he made a high profile visit to a re-entry program. Last week, he announced a set of innovative re-entry policies. And this week, he made long overdue changes in the restoration of right process. Maybe I’m wrong, but I think that this will eventually be seen as a legacy item, a place where McDonnell made more progress than his Democratic predecessors.

5. Cuccinelli

We used to ask a question to this effect on some of the Survey Lab polls in the 1990’s about the Attorney General and Lieutenant Governor. “We’re trying to see how well the media does its job. Could you tell us who the (Attorney General/Lieutenant Governor) currently is?” As I recall, in the years that we conducted the poll, the highest percentage of correct responses that we received occurred when 11% of Virginians named Don Beyer as the Lieutenant Governor (largely because many NOVA-ites knew him from his car dealership). Typically, 7%-8% of Virginians could name their Lieutenant Governor or Attorney General. In terms of sheer name recognition, I wouldn’t be surprised if Ken Cuccinelli has already far outpaced the norm. Many insiders believe that his political career may be irreparably damaged by some of these early controversies, but I tend to think that they may be underestimating how much celebrity (of any sort) counts in politics today.

6. Substantial Accord?

School boards and  local governing bodies tend to have a set of what might be labeled “natural tensions.” School boards are independently elected (except in the few places where they are still appointed) and yet boards of supervisors  and city councils have taxing authority and allocate the overall amount of money that schools receive. It’s not suprising that in the tough economic times, school boards and county supervisors might wrangle over the share of dollars that should be allocated to education. But a new wrinkle has been added to this tension in Chesterfield County where the Planning Commission has gotten into the fray and one commissioner has called on the citizenry to replace the entire School Board at the next election. What’s going on is an argument about the meaning of ”substantial accord.” As I understand it, the Planning Commission not only wants the location of schools to be in line with the County’s comprehensive plan, but wants a signoff on the kind of school that will be located at a site.  The School Board, for its part. does not believe that it should have to ask the Planning Commission whether, for example, an older high school can be reused as a middle school. I’ve not heard of Planning Commissions exercising this kind of power elsewhere in Virginia and would not be surprised if the very powerful Virginia School Board Association gets into this mix.

7. Skinned Alive

That’s how Senate Majority Leader Dick Saslaw described the state’s new VITA contract and some of the additional expenditures involved for the Commonwealth. It’s no surprise that  “skinned alive” was on the Majority Leader’s mind this week as identity thieves used Saslaw’s credit card number to buy medical marijuana in California. It’s a good reminder for everyone to check their credit card charges as getting mugged in cyberspace is becoming increasingly common. Bloodless but no less devastating.