Virginia Tomorrow

1. What Happened to Summer Vacation?

In Virginia politics this summer. Lawsuits against the Fed.  UVA v. Cuccinelli. A signature ABC privatization proposal from the Governor. The AG making headlines almost every day.  An immigration proposal to turn Virginia into Arizona East. Congressional races heating up that’ll be a national barometer. There’s no recession in the political arena. Who wouldn’t want to own a television station in the 2nd or 5th Congressional districts?

2. Rasmussen v. VCU

We also had dueling polls this week. Rasmussen came out with a survey that had Bob McDonnell’s approval rating at 64%, sixteen points higher than the numbers released by VCU last week. Part of the difference may be that Rasmussen’s survey centered on “likely voters” while VCU’s tapped “adult Virginians.” I noted last week that I was surprised by VCU’s numbers on McDonnell, largely because other aspects of the same poll showed a fairly dramatic turnaround for the state’s “right track” number since the final year of the Kaine administration. VCU’s survey operation (which once reported to me) does an excellent job, but on this one number I tend to think that Rasmussen is closer to where the voters probably are.

3. Corey Stewart

The Chairman of the Prince William County Board of Supervisors announced that he is forming the Virginia Rule of Law PAC to propose and support an Arizona-like immigration law in the Commonwealth. He’ll be traveling around the state, raising money, and using the dollars donated to support legislative candidates in the 2011 elections. Regardless of what you think of the proposal, it is one of the most creative ways that a local government official with statewide aspirations has ever developed to gain name recognition across the Commonwealth. Starting today, you can put Stewart’s name into the 2013 statewide calculus.

4. The Governor Comes to Town

This week, Bob McDonnell starts a series of town halls that have been scheduled for every region of the Comonwealth. Initial stories have focused on how he’ll utilize the town halls to support his proposals on ABC privatization (and I guess that opponents of the policy change might be organizing to attend the events as well). But I think the town halls are part of a larger strategy from the McDonnell team. It’s the Governor’s way of communicating directly with the public, of moving out of the Richmond political bubble, and not having media coverage dominated by the priorities of the media itself.

5. Speaking About ABC Privatization

I have a bit of personal bias in favor the general concept since I served as Executive Director of the Wilder Commission which recommended that the Commonwealth seriously consider moving forward with privatization. It also seems to me that the McDonnell team under the leadership of Eric Finkbeiner is crafting a serious, financially responsible proposal. I’ve yet to hear any potential opponent make a convincing case that the sale and distribution of alcohol should remain a core service of Virginia state government. But here’s the political challenge.  ABC privatization simply does not have a “natural” statewide constituency that can be easily mobilized on behalf of the proposal. My sense is that the upcoming town halls are part of a wide ranging strategy that the McDonnell administration is developing to translate good policy into legislative success. It may well become the signature political battle of his first two years in office.

6. If You Think Virginia has Challenges

I’ve been on a mini-vacation in Florida for the past few days helping my dad celebrate his 95th birthday (more of us should be this fortunate). The political news down here is extraordinary. Local governments are struggling with far more dramatic fiscal reductions than we’ve seen in the Commonwealth. And some of the recent polling results are mind-boggling. For the past few months, everyone has been talking about a three way Senate race between current Governor Charlie Crist running as an independent, Republican conservative Marco Rubio and Democratic congressman Kendrick Meek. But it appears that Meek is likely to lose the Democratic nod (by a wide margin) to a billionaire Palm Beach businessman named Jeff Greene.  I think Greene is likely to pose far more of a challenge to Crist than Meek will, providing a far better opportunity for Rubio. And in the GOP race for Governor, former Congressman and current Florida AG Bill McCollum is actually now slightly behind another businessman, Rick Scott. If the Sunshine State is any indication, we’re in for a wild political ride this fall.